I think it will be close.
If its Obama...he will not win any of the sourthern states, including Florida. He will have major trouble in Ohio and Mo. McCain has a shot a Michigan, Wisconsin, PA and all of the western states Bush won.
Don’t count out McCain.
I think it will turn on the Democrats crossover vote.
As the Democratic fight bloodies up, more and more of the losers of the Dem primary could turn to McCain. He is one of them anyway.
I still expect McCains first act as President elect will be to change parties and become a Democrat.
larry