Show me ANY poll that proves your point.
Just ONE poll.
No poll needed. Of the Republican candidates, Paul was the only one that attracted a huge, unprecedented grassroots following. He attracted lots of newcomers, old-line conservatives, and libertarians to his cause.
In a general election matchup with Obama, Paul would have not only retained the traditional conservative base, there would be no 3rd parties or libertarians voting LP. They'd be voting for Paul, and he'd get a chunk of the independent vote as well.
Now you have McCain who is at odds with a demoralized conservative base and all of his so-called moderate and independent friends will desert him in the end.