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Missile Defense Future May Turn on Success of Mission to Destroy Satellite
NY Times ^ | February 16, 2008 | THOM SHANKER

Posted on 02/17/2008 6:26:54 PM PST by neverdem

WASHINGTON — The order by President Bush for the Navy to launch an antimissile interceptor to destroy a disabled satellite before it falls from orbit carries opportunity, but also potential embarrassment, for the administration and advocates of its missile defense program.

The decision was described by senior officials as designed solely to protect populated areas from space debris, and not to showcase how the emerging missile defense arsenal could be reprogrammed to counter an unexpected threat: in this case hazardous rocket fuel aboard the dead satellite.

Even so, the attempt, expected within the next two weeks, will again throw into sharp relief the administration’s antipathy to treaties limiting antisatellite weapons, which puts the United States opposite China and Russia, which just this week proposed a new pact banning space weapons.

Often compared to hitting a bullet with a bullet, the shooting down of ballistic missiles with an interceptor rocket is difficult, as an adversary’s warheads would be launched unexpectedly on relatively short arcs — and most likely more than one at a time.

So it should be easier for the Standard Missile 3, a Navy weapon launched from an Aegis cruiser in the northern Pacific, to find and strike a satellite almost the size of a school bus making orbits almost as regular as bus routes around the globe, 16 times a day.

Should it succeed, the accomplishment would embolden those who champion even more spending on top of the $57.8 billion appropriated by Congress for missile defenses since the Bush administration’s first budget in the 2002 fiscal year.

It might even revive a dormant effort to focus the military on antisatellite operations, as well. Failure, on the other hand, would be cited as hard and fresh evidence for those who point to the futility of space-warfare programs.

Beyond arguments...

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections; Russia; Technical
KEYWORDS: aegis; aerospace; antimissiledefense; bush; missiledefense; nationalsecurity; satellite; sdi; usn
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1 posted on 02/17/2008 6:26:57 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

shbe Tom Wanker.


2 posted on 02/17/2008 6:28:35 PM PST by Dilbert56 (Harry Reid, D-Nev.: "We're going to pick up Senate seats as a result of this war.")
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To: neverdem

The NYT is banking on failure.


3 posted on 02/17/2008 6:31:55 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

Hard for me to believe our guys can’t get the thing with three shots at it.


4 posted on 02/17/2008 6:32:51 PM PST by squidly
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To: neverdem
Failure, on the other hand, would be cited as hard and fresh evidence for those who point to the futility of space-warfare programs.

What does missile defense have to do with "space warfare"?

5 posted on 02/17/2008 6:33:14 PM PST by lasereye
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To: neverdem
but also potential embarrassment, for the administration and advocates

Oh well gosh, let's not try it then, /s

6 posted on 02/17/2008 6:34:59 PM PST by 386wt (Be free and don't die!)
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To: lasereye
Re: What does missile defense have to do with "space warfare"?

Gadzooks! You use a missile... when your phasers and photon torpedoes don't work!

7 posted on 02/17/2008 6:40:26 PM PST by Bender2 ("I've got a twisted sense of humor, and everything amuses me." RAH Beyond this Horizon)
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To: neverdem

at least that headline is the fervent wish at the NYT and DNC. Is it any wonder why those folks are in favor of gun-free zones (aka target rich environments).


8 posted on 02/17/2008 6:42:55 PM PST by NonValueAdded (Who Would Montgomery Brewster Choose?)
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To: neverdem
The process has often been compared to hitting a bullet with a bullet. But we don’t actually have to hit the satellite directly. If the missile blows close enough to the satellite, it can damage the fuel tank sufficiently.

It’s like completing a pass in football. A quarterback may aim for the numbers, but if he gets the football within arms reach of the receiver’s chest, the football is catchable.

Before the satellite hits the atmosphere, we can predict its path just like the quarterback knows the routes that his receivers will be running. “Hitting” the satellite in this case requires about the same accuracy as completing a 2,000 yard pass.

9 posted on 02/17/2008 6:43:28 PM PST by Qout
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To: squidly

“Hard for me to believe our guys can’t get the thing with three shots at it.”

They will hit it.


10 posted on 02/17/2008 6:44:36 PM PST by EQAndyBuzz (Shouldn't the libs love a Hunter Thompson ticket in 08?)
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To: EQAndyBuzz
"They will hit it."

And if they don't, they damned sure will say they did.

11 posted on 02/17/2008 6:59:11 PM PST by diogenes ghost
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To: neverdem
Thank goodness there were no failures, or worse still injuries or deaths, in the years leading up to our successful mission to the moon!

It’s a hallmark of the “anti” anything bunch that they take early failures and herald them as harbingers of the failure of the entire process or project.

We’ve really seen this in Iraq where they knew the window for discrediting the effort was finite and they had to make as much hay as possible in the early days of the surge if they had any hope of it failure.

Hit or miss on this attempt, it’s just one step in the series of steps it will take to develop a fully functional defensive missile system.

12 posted on 02/17/2008 7:00:54 PM PST by jwparkerjr (Sigh . . .)
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To: Qout

The SM-3 is a kinetic kill vehicle and does not carry explosives. It won’t blow up near the satellite. They need to have a direct hit or nothing will happen.

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/stardsm3.htm


13 posted on 02/17/2008 7:07:57 PM PST by hc87
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To: neverdem
"Missile Defense Future May Turn on Success of Mission to Destroy Satellite"

Ridiculous.

The Missile Defense system has been under developement for years and tested many times, with amazing improvements.

It's future in no way depends on this single event.

14 posted on 02/17/2008 7:08:53 PM PST by Jorge
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To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
IS OUR NATIONAL IDENTITY IN DANGER? U.S. immigration policy must be tolerant, but tough

Ross Kemp in Afghanistan [Brits at war and what they REALLY think about the Americans]

(pdf link)Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder and Suicide? A Review of International Evidence by Gary A. Mauser & Don B. Kates says a resounding NO!. All the tables are at the end.

From time to time, I’ll ping on noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs. FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

15 posted on 02/17/2008 7:12:32 PM PST by neverdem (I have to hope for a brokered GOP Convention. It can't get any worse.)
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To: lasereye

“What does missile defense have to do with “space warfare”?”

Nothing.

I said this earlier,

If the ASAT is a success, the Star Wars Part Deux lobbyists will claim it a victory for their programs.

If it fails they will point out, truthfully, that it wasn’t a product of their lobbies.


16 posted on 02/17/2008 7:14:52 PM PST by Shermy
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To: neverdem

NYT has nothing worthwhile to say.


17 posted on 02/17/2008 7:17:39 PM PST by Tax Government (Government-funded education, for the most part, is content to make morons of us all.)
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To: lasereye

Everything in the context of defense against ICBMs which must travel through space to reach their targets.


18 posted on 02/17/2008 7:18:44 PM PST by John Robie
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To: John Robie
Everything in the context of defense against ICBMs which must travel through space to reach their targets.

I respectfully disagree, this satellite is orbiting and not flying ballistic. Orbiting means it's moving fast, much much faster than an ICBM which is ballistic. This will be a much more difficult shot to make a kinetic kill on due to the velocity of the target alone. Still I have confidence in the Aegis BMDS system and the SM-3, the engineers and scientists would have never suggested it as an option for the President if they weren't sure they could do it. It will be a huge feather in the cap of MDA.

On the negative side, it does support the Russians thesis that the system is offensive, this will prove that it can be.

19 posted on 02/17/2008 7:27:39 PM PST by American_Centurion (No, I don't trust the government to automatically do the right thing.)
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To: neverdem

If our guys can’t hit something they’ve been tracking for years, it’s time to throw in the towel. Quit. Walk away. Call it a game.


20 posted on 02/17/2008 7:32:03 PM PST by GOPJ (Obama didn't get one counted vote in Harlem's 94th. Not one. Will Texas and Ohio cheat next?)
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