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McCain Solidifies Lock On Nomination
Captain's Quarters ^ | Feb. 13, 2008 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 02/13/2008 7:20:06 AM PST by jdm

In the end, the Mike Huckabee surge in Virginia fell far short of victory. John McCain swept the Potomac Primaries last night, winning by nine in Virginia and winning among conservatives in Maryland. The delegate count now makes his nomination inevitable:

Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) swept Republican primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District last night, defeating former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and adding to his vast delegate lead in the race to become his party's presidential nominee.

But even as he dominated the Potomac Primary, McCain lost conservatives in Virginia, as he has across the South and parts of the Midwest -- trailing Huckabee among that group and evangelicals as he attempts to unite a fractured Republican Party behind his candidacy.

Speaking to a few hundred supporters at a victory rally in Old Town Alexandria, McCain echoed Democrat Barack Obama, saying he was "fired up and ready to go." But he also hinted at a possible face-off with the senator from Illinois in the fall, saying Obama's message of hope is not enough.

"Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing," he told the crowd, sounding like Obama's Democratic rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), when he added: "To encourage a country with only rhetoric, rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people, is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude."

Huckabee won self-professed conservatives in Virginia, mostly thanks to a strong showing in the western end of the state. He lost among the same demographic in Maryland, however. The shift appears to be from former Romney voters, but it simply wasn't enough to derail McCain. Huckabee lost Virginia by a much wider margin than he lost South Carolina, and he's running out of states where strong evangelical showings are possible.

In fact, even if he had a chance to win the rest of the states, it still couldn't keep McCain from winning the nomination. Huckabee said last night that his strategy is to get to the convention with the nomination still open, and hope to win an open convention. Since the rest of the states allocate delegates proportionally, the mathematics are all but impossible.

We now have 1,049 delegates left to win, and McCain needs only 380 more to clinch the nomination. Huckabee would have to win 670 of the delegates left in the primaries in order to block McCain. That means Huckabee would have to win more than 65% of the vote in every single state left to contest, while McCain would have to take less than 35% of the vote in every single state.

And that's just to force an open convention, not to win the nomination. Huckabee hasn't won more than 45% in any state, and he didn't get to 45% in Virginia last night, either. Virginia's winner-take-all primary was his last hope of affecting McCain's trajectory in any meaningful way, and he lost by nine -- as I had predicted earlier in the day.

McCain has already started shifting his focus to the general election. He offered nothing but kindness to Huckabee, but began challenging Barack Obama. Expect to hear McCain repeatedly dismiss Obama's platitudes on "hope" and get him into a debate on specific policies. Obama will lose that fight, but if he doesn't engage McCain, he'll look like an empty suit. McCain has a lot more time to focus on Obama than the reverse, and he can do some damage to Obama's momentum among independents while Obama tries to finish off Hillary Clinton.


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; huckabee; mccain; nomination; potomacprimary; va2008

1 posted on 02/13/2008 7:20:10 AM PST by jdm
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To: jdm

Conservatives in Maryland? Sure. All six of them.


2 posted on 02/13/2008 7:25:40 AM PST by Melchior
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To: jdm
Learn Spanish now.

And start warming up on how to pay the bribe to the cop.

3 posted on 02/13/2008 7:27:48 AM PST by Regulator
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To: jdm
I’m gonna start looking at this man’s nomination with a clear head. I’d rather have this rino than Barak Hussein Osama or the SHE-DEVIL. The only consolation we have here folks, is McNASTY’s VP! Hear me out....he is not a well man and if he should get ill while in office the VP would automatically take over. Our concern now is that he picks an OUTSTANDING VP! He is our nominee by default so let’s stop whining and start working our butts off to get back the Hill and WH.
4 posted on 02/13/2008 7:36:24 AM PST by RoseofTexas
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To: Regulator
When it comes to bribing a cop, I'm glad I've got the "Trunkmonkey option."
5 posted on 02/13/2008 7:39:47 AM PST by the gillman@blacklagoon.com (And close the damned borders!)
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To: jdm
"McCain has already started shifting his focus to the general election. He offered nothing but kindness to Huckabee, but began challenging Barack Obama."


Despite the wailing from the GOP establishment, it does not appear that the McCain camp finds the Huckabee campaign to be an obstacle.
6 posted on 02/13/2008 7:43:22 AM PST by rob777 (Personal Responsibility is the Price of Freedom)
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To: Melchior

I don’t know why people say this. Do you think conservatives all just move out of democratic states and over to republican states? Conservatives live in every state in this country, and even if the overall republican party in a state is moderate or liberal, there will be a strong conservative contingent.


7 posted on 02/13/2008 7:46:14 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: RoseofTexas

I’m starting to agree. Even McCain looks conservative relative to HillBama. And the cancer can recur at any time, the VP is most important here. I do like how McCain called Obama on his vacuous platitudinizing.


8 posted on 02/13/2008 7:57:25 AM PST by Rennes Templar ("The future ain't what it used to be".........Yogi Berra)
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To: jdm
He offered nothing but kindness to Huckabee, but began challenging Barack Obama.

McCain needs Huck to stay in the race, so Obama Hussain and Hidlebeast don’t suck up every last minute of media.

9 posted on 02/13/2008 7:59:37 AM PST by FreedomProtector
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To: CharlesWayneCT

For years I lived in Maryland, adjacent to DC. I never met a conservative there. Nearly all were bureaucrats who had found a home in government and wanted it that way. Regarding the six conservatives in Maryland, I was being ironic. Sure there are some conservatives in Maryland. I hear there are a handful up in Cumberland and two or three out on the eastern shore.


10 posted on 02/13/2008 8:04:46 AM PST by Melchior
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To: jdm

11 posted on 02/13/2008 8:07:55 AM PST by SoConPubbie (McAmnesty is the End Times for the GOP)
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To: jdm

Lock? More like a screen door latch.


12 posted on 02/13/2008 8:09:25 AM PST by TADSLOS (Juan Hernandez' Battle Cry: "Juan McCain for El Presidente! Si, se puede!")
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To: jdm

He better get a lock on all those liberals that are voting for him.


13 posted on 02/13/2008 8:15:30 AM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: Melchior

When you lived in Maryland, didn’t you attend a church there? Are you saying that your church had no members who were conservative? Did you join the local republican party organization, or find the local chapter of the American Family Foundation or one of the good conservative groups like Club for Growth?

I can imagine you could walk down the street and not bump into someone you know is conservative. I was born in Maryland, and lived there on an off for much of my childhood, and I still know many good conservatives there. There are parts of the state that are quite conservative, such as portions of the eastern shore.

The republicans that get elected, a lot aren’t conservative because there are a lot more liberals than conservatives, and so you have liberal republicans.


14 posted on 02/13/2008 10:44:13 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: jdm
When you vote for a man you are blessing his record.

Shouldn't you know his record?

15 posted on 02/13/2008 11:20:04 AM PST by TigersEye (This is the age of the death of reason.)
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To: RoseofTexas
Lets not endorse him until h unequivocally denounces amnesty, until he does I plan to write in for Newt!
16 posted on 02/13/2008 11:30:51 AM PST by Daryl L.Hunter (Pacifists are the unwitting ally of the enemy!)
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To: TigersEye
In an ideal world you have the choice of voting for a man who's record you bless. In reality, that option is very rare.

However, you should know their record so you can make an informed decision.

17 posted on 02/13/2008 12:05:16 PM PST by untrained skeptic
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To: untrained skeptic

Is there any difference between an imperfect candidate and a thoroughly rotten candidate?


18 posted on 02/13/2008 12:27:50 PM PST by TigersEye (This is the age of the death of reason.)
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To: TigersEye
Is there any difference between an imperfect candidate and a thoroughly rotten candidate?

The imperfect candidate is the one you though was throughly rotten, until you compared them to the other, even worse, choices.

19 posted on 02/13/2008 1:17:07 PM PST by untrained skeptic
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To: untrained skeptic

lol OK


20 posted on 02/13/2008 1:24:26 PM PST by TigersEye (This is the age of the death of reason.)
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