Posted on 02/11/2008 6:58:26 PM PST by seanmerc
I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend's victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary's inability to win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.
Hillary's results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she will ever come to the party nomination.
Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who have thus far committed themselves.
March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probably wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. (Although in Texas' open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).
And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.
And don't bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favors.
Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.
Of course he has . . . . he predicts things one way this week, and the other way next week.
Why?
He changes his mind over and over again.
Has Dick Morris EVER been correct about anything? Not two months ago, he was saying that Hillary had it in the bag and that there was no stopping her.
Morris is a sleazy idiot.
Has Dick been right about anything in the last 10 years?
Gee, that's insightful. /sarc
He never sticks to his original prediction. First it was Hillary, now it's Obama, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went back and forth a few more times before the convention. He's a pretty good political analyst, but as a prognosticor he sucks toes.
Of the two Senators seeking the ‘Rat nomination, which one currently holds the same seat as the last Senator to seek the Party nomination 40 years ago?
Remember that sometimes lightning DOES strike twice! ;)
prognosticator, that is..
I thought that this schmuck predicted that 2008 would be about Hillary and Condi? Didn’t he even write a book about that prediction? I really enjoy watching good old Dickie, Anything for a buck, Morris!!!!!
I disagree with this statement. From what I'm seeing here, whatever crossover there is will likely be a wash with an insignificant difference between votes for either Dem. IMO most Republicans are too involved in their own denial voting and so probably will not cross over in large numbers.
I’ve said Obama would win.
Today Rush reminded us of the Super Delegates that ‘belong’ to Hillary!.
She will probably be selected, even if she’s not elected.
Be very careful what you hope for...
I would love to have Dick Morris at my poker table. I could use a new laptop.
There were a pair of psychic twins on C2C about a week ago who said they had never been wrong in their predictions of presidents, although the statement was that they had predicted that Hillary would win the election. I was thinking at the time that the statement sounded a bit couched because they could have been talking about her election as NY Senator. And I was hoping Noory would pin them down to saying unequivocally that she would win the Presidential election, but he didn’t. Anyway, I am hopeful that Hillary is a wash out.
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