Posted on 02/11/2008 1:10:17 PM PST by dangus
Friday, Rasmussen didn’t even poll Republicans on their primary choice; the national news media already announced McCain had won the nomination. Saturday Rasmussen did release their poll: McCain trounced Huckabee, 55-24. Sunday, as the nation learned Huckabee was still a candidate, Huckabee improved, but still trailed greatly, 49-29. Monday’s poll shows Huckabee pulling to within 12 points, 46-34.
This seemed in monumental conflict with Gallup, which showed McCain winning over those same three days, 56-25. But now another poll, AP/IPSOS shows the race just about as close as Rasmussen, 44-30. (The GOP establishment should be nervous that Ron Paul also polled at 9% nationally.)
But is it even closer than Rasmussen shows? All three polls were taken over the same time period. Only Rasmussen released results each day. With them having done so, we can extrapolate from the data roughly which percentage of respondents supported each candidate each day. Saturday McCain won 55-24. To have dropped to a 49-29 lead, McCain must only have led in Sunday’s poll, 43-34. And to have dropped further to a 46-34 lead, McCain seems to have actually lost Monday’s poll, 40-44.
Some caution is necessary: When splitting hairs like this, the effect of rounding and statistical error is amplified. Depending on rounding, McCain and Huckabee could have tied at 43 percent in Monday’s poll. And the margin of error for such a small sample is six percent… which means McCain could have gotten six percent more, and Huckabee could have gotten six percent less. Which means McCain could actually have led Huckabee by twelve percent in the most recent day’s polling data. (But, by the same logic, Huckabee could be winning by twenty percent.)
AP/IPSOS’ three day results are very similar to Rasmussen. Unfortunately, AP/IPSOS didn’t release day-to-day numbers. So we can’t tell if Rasmussen’s results are the result of an amazing tightening, or just bizarrely flukish data on Monday’s release cancelling out equally bizarre data the other way on Sunday. But it seems safe to say that AP/IPSOS confirms that Rasmussen’s overall three-day data is realistic.
So why is Gallup’s so skewed in comparison? Gallup polled “voters” not those who were were most likely to vote. It’s likely less politically active voters were less likely to realize that there was still a battle to be fought. Also, Gallup’s polls counted independents, even though independents won’t be allowed to vote in most remaining states.
It’s still worse for McCain coming up. Whereas California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Delaware, and New Hampshire all have large numbers of moderate Republicans, and all voted for McCain, of the remaining states, that’s only Oregon, Maryland and Vermont tend towards moderates. (I’d also suppose McCain could do well in the military-heavy states of Virginia and Hawaii.) And what happens if McCain voters believe the media hype and don’t bother to vote, while Huckabee’s supporters swarm to the polls?
The notion that Huckabee can’t win simply isn’t at all true. Republican states are mostly winner-take-all, so Huckabee can still nearly every remaining delegate with 51% of the remaining votes. (And even that doesn’t account for the Paul voters.) Even winning scarcely more than half of the remaining delegates could force a brokered convention. Or, more likely, a negotiated victor with Romney supporters and state party leaders picking the winner. Whereas such a deal would haunt Clinton or Obama, who have already considerably tapped potential primary donors, Huckabee could campaign full-throttle on what are legally "primary" funds.
Anything that denies McCain an assured nomination is a good thing. Go brokered!
Try Utah for one.
Ping.
Love it!
Why would the military support McCain, who teamed up with Senator Kerry to have the U.S< turn it’s back on POWs. I thought Bush won among veterans in 2000, because of their dislike of McCain over this?
If I am proven wrong...I will gladly eat crow and congratulate Huckabee. but Huckabee himself has framed the contest...he knows it will take an absolute "miracle".
I believe miracles are possible...but I am not holding my breath expecting it.
Yep. Huck is a shoe salesman, but he can help knock McCain out, I pray.
I hate polls. These days, I think they do more to try and influence selection than they do to monitor current state of opinion.
Golly, ya mean that the ever reliable Republican states of California, Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey or Massachussetts might not go Republican THIS TIME like they ALWAYS DO?/S
>> go for syphilis
(sigh) I did go for syphilis, but it suspended its campaign before it reached the terminal stage.
>> You get delusions of grandeur as a symptom, I hear.
Who needs *delusions* when you’ve got the real thing? ;-)
McCain is bad enough. Huckabee would be a “let’s form a new party”-sized mistake.
When voters learn what Huckabee does vs what he says he will be seen as just as unpleasant as Mc Cain.
Perhaps. But I still am gunning for a brokered convention.
Huckabee: ‘I Majored In Miracles’
McCain has a chance against Obama. Huckabee would lose 40 states.
They’re all delusional and megalomaniacal... I think I’m going for Ron Paul. I can’t vote for anybody else. There’s not enough Vicks in the world to overcome that stink.
Guys, you need to get real at some point and let it go. The time is now.
Truckloads of McKoolAid have not yet reached Huckabee headquarters.
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