So when March 4th rolls around, we'll likely see Obama with a solid lead (50 delegates or more). Now the primaries on the Democrat side are not winner take all so even if the Clintons manage to pull out victories in Ohio and Texas by say 5-10%, it will not be enough to overtake Obama's lead (because he'll take a substantial amount of delegates himself) and then we head into Mississippi a week later which is almost certainly going to be another Obama blowout (40% black population) and he'll easily recapture any lead he would have lost in Texas and Ohio. That leaves only Pennsylvania (April 22) where the Clintons have any reasonable chance to win big.
And that's the best case scenario for the Clintons. Obama's momentum is going to give him an excellent chance to take Ohio although Texas will be a tough nut to crack due to the 40% Hispanic population down there.
Either way, advantage Obama.
Now for the super-delegates, everybody here at the Free Republic keeps yip-yip-yapping about how the Clintons have all these super-delegates in their back pockets. But this is simply not the case. The majority of the super-delegates have yet to declare themselves and they are waiting to see which way the wind blows. So if Obama goes into the convention with the lead in delegates, it is a safe bet that the majority of them will go with Obama.
Thus the only way that the Clintons can pull this nomination out is to win BIG in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. There is no margin for error here. Obama wins one of the three - game over. And even if the Clintons do win all three, they are likely going to have to petition for Michigan and Florida to have their delegates counted and will have to strong-arm some super-delegates in those infamous smoky back rooms. And we all know what that would mean...A Democratic convention that will seem like a flashback to 1968.
Excellent analysis.
Your Presidential Platform on your About page is a hoot. But you’ll never get my vote because your beer is panther piss.
The Huckster stole your idea about fixing the Interstate. One request...could you please make all 32 lanes SOUTHBOUND so that we may escape from Massachusetts quicker?
“A Democratic convention that will seem like a flashback to 1968.”
We can only hope.
Great post !