Do you believe we will fare just well or better with an Obama or Clinton Presidency than we would with a McCain Presidency, with regard to national security, military operations in Iraq and the War on Terror in general?
All in all, I’d call it a wash.
I am a retired military guy and a Vietnam veteran. I began my military career during the Johnson administration and retired at the beginning of Clinton's second term, though the Carter years nearly drove me to leave much earlier. My judgment after serving under Carter and Clinton is that it will not be a wash. Obama will cut and run and Hillary will cut and walk from Iraq. The only thing that will slow the retreat will be the logistics of removing personnel, military and civilian. In the end, the Democrats will leave the Iraqis high and dry, just as a Democratic controlled Congress betrayed the Vietnamese. Another Vietnam.
Many of us have seen this before, so we know that it entirely likely to play out that way.
Your mileage may differ.
First off, McCain has very little chance of winning, and that includes if every last Freeper votes for him.
No creature under heaven can make that prediction this far out and hope to be accurate. There are just too many opportunities for blunders and missteps by either Obama or Clinton. Now that this sweep of primaries is almost over, the dust will settle and we'll be able to get a better view of the field. As thoughtful as you are, I think you're probably three or four months too early in making this call.
The polling organization I pay most attention to in mid January placed McCain as either beating Clinton or lagging behind her by, maybe, 2 percentage points. Against Obama, McCain lagged as much as 5 percentage points. This far out, that makes any candidate's chances for election a toss up. These were polls compiled by surveying likely voters.
Being a crummy pilot forty years ago does not mean McCain knows how to run a war today, but he will try to micromanage instead of leaving it to the experts.
Why would being a crummy pilot have anything to do with anything? Yeah, I know about the four aircraft he lost, two of which were probably due to crummy piloting. The third a flameout. And the last because a rocket inadvertently fired into his plane, resulting in the death of 134 sailors. Well, JFK tore up docks with his PT boat. Maybe he wasn't such a good skipper, but it didn't stop his election.
McCain's years as a POW do matter, certainly among those people I know. It certainly brings to the office something Obama and Clinton can never have and bring into the office.
But on micromanagement, I think you might be right. I watch as religiously as possible, via C-Span, committee meetings I think might be important. I've seen flashes of McCain's agitation when things didn't go the way he presumably thought they ought to go. How that will play out as "The Decider," I don't know.
A telling point might be the military advisors he eventually puts on display during the campaign. If they're people like Tommy Franks, no boot licker, he'll score points. But, I doubt it will be Franks, specifically, because he'll draw fire for alleged lack of post operation planning.
And on age, yeah, I wish he were younger. Heck, I wish we had Fred Thompson, who isn't so young himself, but that didn't work out.
From your previous message:
McCain would wield power that few Presidents have, by virtue of being a nominal member of one party while ideologically aligned with the other. Republicans wouldn’t fight the POTUS of their own party, not if they wanted to keep their political careers. Democrats wouldn’t fight McCain, at least not much, because they ideologically support most of what he wants to do anyway.
That "might" have a glimmer of truth, only if McCain has a desire to be a one term President. To be elected, he has to mend fences, make promises, and in office he has to keep those fences in good repair and make good on those promises.
And if he strayed into the path you've prophesied for him? Your example is Richard Nixon. Eventually he so alienated the powers within his party that he was forced from office and it took Ford's Presidential Pardon to protect him from criminal prosecution.
“In the end, the Democrats will leave the Iraqis high and dry, just as a Democratic controlled Congress betrayed the Vietnamese. Another Vietnam.”
We’re leaving Iraq soon regardless of who’s President, and yes, I include McCain. If he wants a second term, he will withdraw the troops just like Obama and Hillary will, despite his campaign rhetoric. Outside of the far right, the war is NOT POPULAR and the American people aren’t going to go along with it much longer.
In fact, one of the many reasons McCain will lose in November is his “100 years” rhetoric. People on this forum, especially men, have no idea how badly such statements play to women, who are the majority of the electorate. I know married, family values-type, salt of the earth women, usually reliable Republican voters, who are ready to vote for the Dem in November because they see the “endless” war as a greater threat to their children than the terrorists.
“The polling organization I pay most attention to in mid January placed McCain as either beating Clinton or lagging behind her by, maybe, 2 percentage points. Against Obama, McCain lagged as much as 5 percentage points. This far out, that makes any candidate’s chances for election a toss up. These were polls compiled by surveying likely voters.”
If that polling organization is Rasmussen, McCain was beating Hillary like a drum as recently as late December, and Giuliani was beating her six months ago. It’s not too early to look at the potential dirt on McCain, see the MSM salivating, and realize it’s going to get very ugly. McCain is unstable, temperamentally unsuited, and corrupt. There are questions surrounding his time in Vietnam, the circumstances of his divorce and his handling of the information about POA/MIAs left in Vietnam. There is the Keating 5 scandal and 25 years of Senate votes to dissect. He has admitted, in troubled economic times, that he knows little about the economy. And the base hates him. It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that the only way he wins is if we have a serious terror attack on our soil before November 4th.
“A telling point might be the military advisors he eventually puts on display during the campaign.”
Funny how he hasn’t mentioned any military advisors. I’ve seen alist of endorsers, but most of those those guys are way past their prime, in the James Stockdale “What am I doing here?” sense. The only guy with a military background surrounding McCain these days is Lindsay Graham, God help us all.
“That ‘might’ have a glimmer of truth, only if McCain has a desire to be a one term President. To be elected, he has to mend fences, make promises, and in office he has to keep those fences in good repair and make good on those promises.”
There’s nothing in his history or temperament that shows he has it in him.