[eyedigress]

If they keep the price where it is shale oil will be mined and permanent operations will be in place. They know it.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

"If they keep the price where it is shale oil will be mined and permanent operations will be in place. They know it."

That's a very good point. The oil sands had a very high capital cost for development -- but, the ongoing costs are only a fraction of total costs. The capital costs are sunk costs -- they won't factor into any business decision about continuing operations. Even if the price of crude went below the average costs, production would continue as long as prices were above marginal costs -- which are under $25.00/bbl. I suspect that the same economics are involved with shale oil production. If shale were brought into production, the world price of oil would probably drop to well under $80.00/bbl.