>> And when the next year with a substantial El Nino ranks first in the assessments of all three groups, what will that do to your assertion? <<
That would be the greatest year-over-year warming to date. Obviously, I’m not predicting that, and certainly not going to concede it will happen. Of course, the next year, when space aliens arrive and zap us with a freeze ray, and turn the entire Earth into an iceball, your theory is going to look pretty shot to hell, too.
What I’m now arguing with you is that current events are incompatible with an accelerating warming trend as the alarmists are asserting. Could a warming trend resume? yes. But the next few years would require a warming as we have not ever seen to get us back to the 1975-2005 trend line.
I think that most climate scientists expect the approximately ~0.2 C per decade warming trend to continue for a couple more decades. Remember, this decade might be just 0.1 C of warming, and the next decade could be 0.3, and that averages out to 0.2. So I don't rush to judgment based on month-to-month changes.
However, I have virtually no doubt that the next year featuring a substantial El Nino will rank as the warmest year in the assessments of all three groups, because that underlying warming trend is still happening, despite the current cool conditions we are observing.