Do the simple math.
You need 1,191 delegates to win.
Right now McCain has 680 Delegates.
Romney has 270
Huckabee has 176.
There are 1254 left to be awarded.
McCain needs 511
Romney needs 921
Huckabee needs 1,015
Even if Romney drops out right now, Huckabee cannot win. He is too far behind in the delegate count. He would need to win almost every single remaining state to win. He cannot do it. He has neither the money, the organization nor the political support to do it. Huckabees campaign is dead. It cannot be saved.
Even for Romney it is an almost impossible long shot but with his money, media support and organization, he has a chance. Not a very good one but his shot is doable. Huckabee doesn’t even have a shot at all.
But Romney can’t carry the Red states, Huckabee can. It’s pointless to support Romney when it means during the general election we lose the red states that didn’t vote for him in the primaries, and we don’t get the blue states that did.
That will deny McCain an outright win.
But all that means is that he will do a deal with one or the other and we will have Mitt or Huck for VP ... most likely Huck.
Huck and McCain have some kind of agreement. I don’t know if McCain will honor that agreement once he has what he wants, but clearly Huck will stay in the race just to deny Romney the chance.
“Even for Romney it is an almost impossible long shot but with his money, media support and organization, he has a chance.”
This analysis is correct - But there’s a problem with this approach. We shouldn’t be asking ANYONE to step aside. The reason Romney isn’t beating Huckabee is because - he just isn’t. I don’t like Huckabee, but pleas for him to step aside only entrench his delusioned followers, and they make Mitt look bad. How long before we hear that Mitt should step down.
Huckabee preaches a narrow brand of conservatism. But it is a brand of conservatism and it deserves to be heard. Romney preaches a strong brand of traditional conservatism, but in truth, hasn’t proved he has conservative “street creds”. This is how you get them. Take Huck on. Challenge him to a one on one debate. Call him out on the double team tactics. Make an issue of the Conservatives for Choice McCain endorsement. Something other than ask him to quit.
Mitt needs to Create the Energy, not ask it be delivered.
You spent more time on your excellent answer than this deserved. Obviously McCain has a lock. The only relevance on whether Romney and/or Huckabee drop out now is based on other considerations, e.g. influence at convention, etc
Well maybe MH and MR should both drop out and give RP their delegates.
The comedy alone would be worth it.
But a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain.
“Huckabee doesn’t even have a shot at all.”
He hasn’t since Florida.