LIVE THREAD Super Tuesday 2008

5 February 2008

[SE Mom]

Here we go...

The Democrat nominee needs 2,025 to win.

The Republican nominee needs 1,191 to win.

[SE Mom]

Fasten your seatbelts!

[SE Mom]

Ping for lists!

[petercooper]

Defeat McCain.

[rightwingintelligentsia]

Here's hoping we won't need these come November.

[SE Mom]

Useful links:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18970417/

http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/

[Brett66]

Just voted for Mitt in Oklahoma.

[conservativeinferno]

MITT, MITT, MITT!!!

[mykdsmom]

It really ticks me off that here in NC our primary isn't until May 6th. By then it will be over and my vote against McCain will be useless.

I think the powers that be, need to come up with a rotating primary schedule so that the states that have late primary dates have a chance to cast their votes too. It's not fair IMO.

I hope all of you that get to vote and have your votes actually mean something appreciate that chance, because millions of us don't get that opportunity.

[Brett66]

Fred Thompson was still on the ballot here in Okla. sorely tempted to vote for him, but McCain must be stopped.

[SE Mom]

:) Were there lines? What does turnout look like in Oklahoma for today?

[Tijeras_Slim]

Dim caucus in NM only. Republican primary in June (fat lot of good that will do)

I get the feeling that this year will be one long political colonoscopy.

[redtetrahedron]

(Got this in email from NumbersUSA)

IF YOU WANT TO VOTE TO KEEP McCAIN FROM GETTING DELEGATES IN YOUR STATE ...

It would seem to be a significant victory if McCain can be stopped from getting any more than 700 of the more than 1,000 delegates at stake today. That (combined with the nearly 100 he already has) would leave him at least 400 short of the 1,191 needed to secure the GOP nomination.

A major victory would be to keep him below 600. That would give anti-amnesty forces some time in the remaining Primary states to better educate Republican voters about Sen. McCain’s stated commitment to giving amnesty to at least 10 million illegal aliens and to dramatically increasing the importation of foreign workers to compete with American workers.

Keeping McCain’s wins under 600 — or even under 700 — is going to be tough because polls show McCain with overwhelming leads in winner-take-all states of New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52) and Connecticut (30).

This next section is highly controversial because every Republican and Democratic candidate has support among a segment of you getting this email. Please understand that I am making no endorsements here.

But what I am doing is showing you what you would do if your top priority today is to keep pro-amnesty McCain from getting delegates.

Paul, Huckabee and Romney have all made explicit promises to oppose legalization (amnesty) of illegal aliens and to use an Attrition Through Enforcement policy that drives illegal aliens back to their home countries.

(Nearly all of the surveys listed below were taken over the weekend.)

If you are willing to switch your vote from your favorite candidate to a candidate best able to defeat McCain today, you might:

VOTE FOR RON PAUL in ....

* ALASKA: The Wall Street Journal suggests Paul might be poised to win this state.

VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY in ...

* ARIZONA: Deep resentments among Republicans about their long-time home-state Senator McCain has left him with a bit of vulnerability and perhaps the opportunity for a Super Bowl type upset. The latest Rasmussen polls show McCain at 43%, followed by Romney at 34% (and Huckabee at 9% and Paul at 7%). A truly serious get-out-the-vote drive provides the slightest possibility of the embarrassing upset for McCain.

* CALIFORNIA: The latest SurveyUSA shows McCain at 39% and Romney at 36%. But Rasmussen’s poll of the last two days shows Romney ahead with 40% over McCain’s 32% (and 12% for Huckabee and 5% for Paul). A McCain loss in California would give a lot of people hope in the remaining Primary states. Anti-amnesty votes should coalesce around Romney for a big news media victory and lots of delegates.

* COLORADO: Romney should take this from McCain if the anti-amnesty voters stick with him.

* GEORGIA: According to the latest Insider Advantage poll, McCain at 32% is in a dead heat with Romney at 31% (followed by Huckabee at 26% and Paul at 3%). Georgia is one of the three most aggressive states in trying to drive illegal aliens away. Unless some of Huckabee’s and Paul’s supporters switch to Romney, the state may send pro-amnesty McCain delegates to the convention.

* ILLINOIS: The latest SurveyUSA shows McCain at 38% and Romney at 23% (with Huckabee at 25% and Paul at 7%). This is a real long-shot that will require incredible turnout by anti-amnesty voters.

* MASSACHUSETTS: Make sure Romney takes the delegates of his home state.

* MONTANA: The winner takes all 25 delegates.

* NORTH DAKOTA: Romney should be the frontrunner for the anti-amnesty vote here.

* UTAH: Romney appears poised to take all these delegates.

VOTE FOR MIKE HUCKABEE in ...

* ALABAMA: Latest SurveyUSA poll shows McCain at 37% and Huckabee at 35% (with Romney at 19% and Paul at 6%). Romney and Paul voters could easily push Huckabee vote total to defeat McCain. Huckabee over the weekend signed the long and detailed immigration pledge of Sen. Sessions, Alabama’s wildly popular champion opponent of illegal immigration. Alabamans despise amnesty. How could this state go for McCain? The only way is for the anti-amnesty vote to be divided.

* ARKANSAS: Huckabee should win in his home state. Make sure McCain doesn’t pull an upset.

* MISSOURI: This is a winner-take-all state. According to the latest SurveyUSA, McCain at 33% will take all of Missouri’s 58 delegates unless anti-amnesty forces coalesce behind one candidate. Although Romney is close at 28% (and Paul at 4%), the best chance for defeating McCain appears to be switching votes to Huckabee who at 31% is virtually tied with McCain.

* OKLAHOMA: Latest SurveyUSA shows McCain at 37% and Huckabee at 32% (with Romney at 23% and Paul at 3%). That is striking distance in a state that is one of the most anti-illegal-immigration in the nation. Why would Oklahomans give their delegates to Amnesty King McCain? Because the anti-amnesty vote is split.

* TENNESSEE: Latest Insider Advantage poll shows McCain with 32% just barely ahead of Huckabee at 30% (with Romney at 22% and Paul at 6%). This is another strongly anti-amnesty state that should easily help Huckabee take these delegates away from McCain.

[tndarlin]

Fred Thompson was still on the ballot here in Okla. sorely tempted to vote for him, but McCain must be stopped.

Same in TN, but I voted for Romney.

[Mama25]

Here in Missouri, too. I actually hesitated for a moment. Damn near teared up, as I really wanted Fred.

I voted for Mitt. McCain MUST be stopped.

[Brett66]

There were more democrats in line than Republicans, looks like a lot of interest on the dem side.

[GOPRaleigh]

amen - I’m frustrated by this as well!

[conservativeinferno]

Thanks! Politico.com also has great county-by-county maps for every state updated in real time.

[Mama25]

Well, damn. I wish I’d seen this yesterday. I was at the polls by 7 AM so I could vote before work and before the weather hits later today. The weather could play havoc with the Missouri results.

[deport]

The Scoreboard via The Green Papers

Current standings and delegates to be won......

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		Republican Pledged and Unpledged Delegate Summary Alphabetically by State   2,516 total delegates - 560 base at-large / 1,305 re: 435 congressional districts / 168 party / 483 bonus Pledged/Unpledged delegates: 1,804 pledged, 576 unpledged. Need to nominate: 1,191.
Rank	(sort) State	(available) (2,159)		McCain, J (102)		Romney, M (69)		Huckabee, M (27)		Hunter, D (1)		Paul, R (11)		Thompson, F (11)		Allocation
		(sort) Pl (1,681)	(sort) Unpl (478)	(sort) Pl (89)	(sort) Unpl (13)	(sort) Pl (24)	(sort) Unpl (45)	(sort) Pl (10)	(sort) Unpl (17)	Pl (0)	(sort) Unpl (1)	Pl (0)	(sort) Unpl (11)	Pl (0)	(sort) Unpl (11)	(sort) Pl	(sort) Unpl	(sort) Total
1	Alabama	45	3													45	3	48
2	Alaska	0	29														29	29
3	American Samoa	6	3													6	3	9
4	Arizona	50	3													50	3	53
5	Arkansas	34	0													34		34
6	California	170	3													170	3	173
7	Colorado	0	46														46	46
8	Connecticut	27	3													27	3	30
9	Delaware	18	0													18		18
10	District of Columbia	16	3													16	3	19
11	Florida			57												57		57
12	Georgia	72	0													72		72
13	Guam	6	3													6	3	9
14	Hawaii	20	0													20		20
15	Idaho	26	6													26	6	32
16	Illinois	57	13													57	13	70
17	Indiana	27	30													27	30	57
18	Iowa		3		5		10		13				4		5		40	40
19	Kansas	36	3													36	3	39
20	Kentucky	45	0													45		45
21	Louisiana	20	27													20	27	47
22	Maine	0	3		4		10		1				3				21	21
23	Maryland	34	3													34	3	37
24	Massachusetts	40	3													40	3	43
25	Michigan		0	7		20		3								30		30
26	Minnesota	0	41														41	41
27	Mississippi	36	3													36	3	39
28	Missouri	58	0													58		58
29	Montana	25	0													25		25
30	Nebraska	30	3													30	3	33
31	Nevada		3		4		17		3				4		3		34	34
32	New Hampshire		0	7		4		1								12		12
33	New Jersey	52	0													52		52
34	New Mexico	29	3													29	3	32
35	New York	87	14													87	14	101
36	North Carolina	69	0													69		69
37	North Dakota	26	0													26		26
38	Northern Marianas	0	9														9	9
39	Ohio	0	88														88	88
40	Oklahoma	38	3													38	3	41
41	Oregon	27	3													27	3	30
42	Pennsylvania	0	74														74	74
43	Puerto Rico	20	3													20	3	23
44	Rhode Island	17	3													17	3	20
45	South Carolina		0	18				6								24		24
46	South Dakota	24	3													24	3	27
47	Tennessee	52	3													52	3	55
48	Texas	137	3													137	3	140
49	Utah	36	0													36		36
50	Vermont	17	0													17		17
51	Virgin Islands	6	3													6	3	9
52	Virginia	63	0													63		63
53	Washington	19	21													19	21	40
54	West Virginia	27	3													27	3	30
55	Wisconsin	37	3													37	3	40
56	Wyoming	0	2				8				1				3		14	14
Convention		1,681	478	89	13	24	45	10	17	0	1	0	11	0	11	1,804	576	2,380

 

Pl: Pledged or Bound Delegates.
Unpl: Unpledged or Not Bound Delegates

 

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[Hoodlum91]

Mitt picked up 2 votes in MA from my parents.

Hoping we still have a choice in the Mid-Atlantic states next week.