“The whole line that Huckabee should drop out in order to stop McCain is stupid.”
Indeed it is:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1964996/posts
Indeed it is:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1964996/posts
That is an interesting article. I don't believe it completely, but I do believe many people have not actually analyzed what is happening in these primaries.
I took a look at the polls. I noticed something interesting. Most of the Southern states have Romney well down in 3rd place. One state, Georgia is an exception. Why is Georgia so different from Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma and South Carolina? The reason -- Atlanta. There are a higher percentage of liberals and moderates in Georgia than the other Southern states mentioned.
It is also why he pulled close to McCain in Florida and beat out Huckabee. Missouri with its large liberal city of St. Louis is also a bit different because even though Romney polls in third place, he does appear to be closer to Huckabee and McCain in that state.
I believe that the moderates are actually being split between Romney and McCain. McCain takes all the liberals, some of the moderates and the military/defense minded conservative.
Romney takes moderates and the fiscal conservatives.
Huckabee takes the social conservatives. There are more social conservatives in the South than anywhere else. That is why he does well in that region.
I also believe that a large number of the Reagan conservatives have not engaged in this race because they really don't have anyone to support. So crying about this one or that one getting out won't really change things in Romney's favor.
Romney does not draw social conservatives. How do I know? He gets little support in the states with a high concentration of social conservatives. Yet he gives McCain a hard time in the states with more republican moderates where I believe Romney has the best chance. The more liberals in the state, the better chance McCain will have. McCain's strong area here in Florida were the Giuliani liberal counties in the southern and western coastal parts of the state. As well as any area that has a military presence.
High liberal states like New York and New Jersey will go for McCain now that Rudy is out of the race.
What I am trying to say is that the idea that social conservatives will go for Mitt is not being supported in the states with high social conservatives. So I don't believe that Huckabee leaving the race will help Mitt one bit.