Election 2008: California Republican Presidential Primary

Rasmussen ^ | February 03, 2008

[chaos_5]

In California, Republican Primary Voters are evenly divided between John McCain and Mitt Romney. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain attracting 38% of the vote and Romney earning an identical 38%. Mike Huckabee is a distant third at 10%, Ron Paul picks up 6%, and 6% say they’ll vote for some other candidate.

Earlier in the week, McCain had a small advantage over Romney. Since then, Giuliani dropped out of the race and endorsed McCain. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger also endorsed the GOP frontrunner. While those events may have helped McCain, a conservative backlash for anybody-but-McCain appears to have helped Romney.

Romney leads 42% to 37% among conservative voters while McCain leads by eleven points among political moderates. McCain has a slight lead among men while Romney leads among women.

Eight percent (8%) of Likely Voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting while another 20% say they might change their mind.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Likely Republican Primary Voters name the economy as the top voting issue for Election 2008. In California, an identical percentage (32%) now say that immigration is the highest priority. McCain leads by sixteen points among those who see the economy as the top issue while Romney leads by twenty-five among voters focused on immigration.

[OKIEDOC]

I’ll believe the lying inaccurate polls when Mitt wins.

[sourcery]

Tell me how he can win a nomination (Florida, e.g., was a closed primary), and then not having republicans’ support.

Tell me how you can support McCain, but still truly be a Republican (other than "in name only")?

And then tell me why I should take your opinion seriously, when you can't keep the distinction straight between "winning a primary" and "winning a nomination"?

[celtic gal]

I got one of those calls too..asking who was my first choice for pres, second for pres ( I said Romney in both cases) and then asked what was most important..econ, war in mid east, boarder security etc...I said boarder security..then at the end of this quiz it was stated it was paid for by McCain...woohoo they won’t like my answers.

[levotb]

It would however be GREAT for Ron Paul who will bolt to The CP if it is McNasty. Paul stands to get a lot of angry conservatives who would in no way vote for McNasty. Paul already has considerable conservative support.

[OKIEDOC]

Are there any real conservatives left in Minnesoota.

Personally all that cold and beer has addled their brains into supporting a turncoat traitor to his party McCaniac.

[KTM rider]

McClintock was the originator and had the goods on Wilson AND Davis to get them booted.

McClintock took a back seat and handed it off so that he could get some distance and run for governor.

when the SHTF for davis, the Wilson regime stepped in, propped up their celbrity puppet Ahnold and stole the trophy

[chaos_5]

Is that true? Isn’t it by population, not just by county? Man, I feel better about my state already!

Not by county, by Congressional District. If you win the district you win three delegates from that district. The overall popular winner will get an extra 14 bonus delegates. Total - 173

[Parley Baer]

Lets hope Mitt can get enough delegates to stop McQueeg and at the least have a brokered convention.

[Forgiven_Sinner]

This gives me hope for Romney. The chattering classes are eager to bury him. I've been following Real Clear Politics, which doesn't yet have this poll:

Poll	         Date	        Sample	McCain	Romney	Huckabee Paul	Spread
RCP Average	01/25 - 02/02	-	35.4	30.4	11.4	5.4	McCain +5.0
ReutersCSpanZog 01/31 - 02/02	1185 LV	34	37	12	5	Romney +3.0
Suffolk	        01/31 - 02/01	500 LV	39	32	8	4	McCain +7.0
Mason-Dixon	01/30 - 02/01	400 LV	40	31	13	3	McCain +9.0
Field	        01/25 - 02/01	481 LV	32	24	13	10	McCain +8.0
Rasmussen	01/29 - 01/29	652 LV	32	28	11	5	McCain +4.0

Adding in the new Rasmussen poll shows a trend toward Romney.

[gpapa]

Breakdown of delegates by State is here: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-Alloc.phtml

California has a total of 173 delegates: 10 at large; 3 delegates for each of 53 congressional districts; 3 for party leaders; and 1 bonus delegate

[longtermmemmory]

Olympia Snow endorsed McCain in Maine and Romney won in the double digits.

RINOs are in trouble.

[KTM rider]

doesn’t Ron Paul have a UFO to catch ? I think he’s gonna be late

[Mamzelle]

re: McCain has a slight lead among men while Romney leads among women.)))

Interesting. Women don't find themselves intimidated by the POW guilt trip the way men often are.

[chaos_5]

Women don't find themselves intimidated by the POW guilt trip the way men often are.

LOL, you may have a point.

I was just thinking that there was a reason they called them "mittens". The dude must be a chick magnet or something.

[KTM rider]

, the official symbol of the McCain/ Ahnold Party

[deport]

Aren’t the delegates “split” in California...and how exactly is that determined?

---

Here’s the breakout of delegates for CA.

Delegate Selection: Winner-Take-All (by district and statewide),
Polling hours 7:00a PDT (1400 UTC) to 8:00p PDT (0300 UTC).
Voter Eligibility: Closed Primary
Voter Participation: Party members

173 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 159 re: 53 congressional districts / 3 party / 1 bonus

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/CA-R.phtml

[Mamzelle]

Or the word is getting out about Cindy and Daddy Boozebucks. Romney is an entrepeneur who made his own way, and kept faith with his wife.

All Romney needs to do is show a photo of Mc and Teddy (hey, two Micks on the Make!) and the amnesty bill.

I'm waiting for Mc to play the Mormon card, and then the gloves can get taken off about the Keating 5, Cindy and the pills, the appalling treatment of his first wife...his distasteful outbursts...

[utahagen]

“My CA vote (absentee) was cast for Mitt 2 weeks ago.”

Ditto.

[chaos_5]

I knew there were 14 that are not assigned by district. I thought they went with the overall winner. Is this true? If not how are the “at large” , “party leader” , and “bonus” delegates assigned?

[samtheman]

If there were no Huckabee, most of his votes would go to Romney. At least I’m assuming that. I could be wrong.