Super Tuesday Math: Far, Far From Over

hughhewitt.townhall.com ^ | 01/30/2008 | Hugh Hewitt

[Checkers]

CNN puts McCain with 97 delegates and Romney at 74.

Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.

Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)

Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.

Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.

Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.

States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

California 173

Georgia 72

Illinois 70

Tennessee 55

Alabama 48

Colorado 46

Massachusetts 41

Minnesota 40

Oklahoma 41

West Virginia 30

Alaska 29

North Dakota 26

Total 671

If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.

Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn't pretty, but it is far, far from over.

And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.

[bmwcyle]

McCain sat there and smirked the whole time. He is such an A$$.

[napscoordinator]

I think he is going to ask his Lindsey so he can “think” he will get the southern vote. Lindsey was so ridiculous during the South Carolina primary. It was almost like he was as excited as a young bride on her wedding night...kinda sick.

[Jeff Head]

I'm with you. I will support Romney now through the primaries as my 3rd choice but as the best hope remaining to: 1st derail McCain if possible, and then 2nd to defeat Hillary or Obama...both of which would be absolute disasters. We know Hillary and the marxism she stands for as well as the corruption. We do not know Obama as well, but his stance and record indicate he is IMHO actually to the left of Hillary.

And then there is the unsettling question about his ties/support/affinity to radical Islam...and not just his father and step-father, but more importantly his 2006 support of candidates in Kenya and his admitted mentor's (his preacher's) affinity towards Louis Farrakhan. In such a time, when we are at war with radical Islam who regularly states their desire and intent to destroy us...fair or not...IMHO we simply cannot risk such ties in any elected official, particularly not the POTUS.

[Sybeck1]

Sadly, I think the Huckadoodles are too anti Morman to see the big picture of allowing John McCain in.

[sasafras]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZBwhqbxHZc&NR=1

[Erik Latranyi]

McCain can never admit he’s wrong about anything...

Here in Pennsylvania, we have Arlen Specter who runs as a conservative moderate every 6 years for re-election and then turns hard left once in office.

McCain, if elected, would absolutely turn left without shame.....especially if he only wants 1 term.

[1Old Pro]

McCain sat there and smirked the whole time. He is such an A$$.

He really deserves a smackdown, perhaps he'll get one when I vote for President Hillary.