Posted on 01/30/2008 4:03:15 PM PST by Checkers
CNN puts McCain with 97 delegates and Romney at 74.
Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.
Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)
Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.
Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.
Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.
States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:
California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26
Total 671
If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.
Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:
McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.
It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.
Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn't pretty, but it is far, far from over.
And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.
(Excerpt) Read more at hughhewitt.townhall.com ...
I think he is going to ask his Lindsey so he can “think” he will get the southern vote. Lindsey was so ridiculous during the South Carolina primary. It was almost like he was as excited as a young bride on her wedding night...kinda sick.
And then there is the unsettling question about his ties/support/affinity to radical Islam...and not just his father and step-father, but more importantly his 2006 support of candidates in Kenya and his admitted mentor's (his preacher's) affinity towards Louis Farrakhan. In such a time, when we are at war with radical Islam who regularly states their desire and intent to destroy us...fair or not...IMHO we simply cannot risk such ties in any elected official, particularly not the POTUS.
Sadly, I think the Huckadoodles are too anti Morman to see the big picture of allowing John McCain in.
Here in Pennsylvania, we have Arlen Specter who runs as a conservative moderate every 6 years for re-election and then turns hard left once in office.
McCain, if elected, would absolutely turn left without shame.....especially if he only wants 1 term.
He really deserves a smackdown, perhaps he'll get one when I vote for President Hillary.
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