I don't. I expect the GOP to lose. Which is why I posted my vanity analysis.
And with the news today that Dr. James Dobson will not support John McCain under any circumstances, things will only get worse.
If Dobson makes this announcement 10 days earlier, Fred Thompson wins both South Carolina and Louisiana and the GOP would still have a viable conservative in the race.
Instead, we're going to get stuck with McCain as our nominee and Dobson's single-issue evangelicals won't even get lip service in a McCain or - more likely - Obama/Hilary administration.
Boy, that Dr. Dobson has shrewd political skills.
And for those evangelicals who are pinning their hopes on McCain selecting Huckabee as his Vice Presidential nominee -- not so fast, my friends!
McCain's VP choice could be Huckabee. But I wuldn't be shocked if Juan McCain chooses Joe Lieberman instead, especially if the Dem's nominee is Hilary.
McCain hates conservatives - always has. He only uses them when he needs to. McCain prefers to reach across the aisle and craves the media attention a bipartisan ticket would give him.
Right now, McCain & Ed Rollins are crunching the numbers.
Lieberman could help McCain carry New England (ME, CT, MA, NH, DE, RI), maybe even New York. Huckabee would give the Northeast completely to Hilary or Obama.
Lieberman could help McCain carry the Mid-Atlantic (PA, DE MD, NJ, DC), except maybe Maryland & DC. Huckabee would give the Mid-Atlantic completely to Hilary or Obama.
Huckabee could help McCain carry a few states in the Midwest (WV, OH, MI, IN, IL, WI, IA, MN, MO). Minnesota, Michigan & Illinois will vote Democrat no matter what, but especially for Obama. All the others (sadly even OH & IN), are leaning Democrat, but MO, OH & IN are still in play.
Huckabee could help McCain in the Plains (OK, NE, KS, SD, ND), especially against Hilary. Lieberman provides no real benefit, especially against Obama.
Neither Huckabee nor Lieberman provide any benefit in the Mountain states (NM, AZ, CO, WY, MT, NV, ID, UT). New Mexico leans Dem, but the rest should be safely GOP.
Lieberman could help McCain carry the Pacific states (CA, OR, WA, AK, HI), especially California, Washington & Oregon. Huckabee provides no support out west. Hawaii will vote Hilary/Obama no matter what and Alaska will go GOP unless Ron Paul runs 3rd party.
Add that up.
McCain has
Locked up: CO, WY, MT, NV, ID, UT, AK (w/ no Paul)
Leaners: OK, NE, KS, SD, ND
Hilary/Obama has
Locked up: HI, MI, IL, MN, MD, DC, MA (if Obama)
Leaners: WI, IA, WV, CA, OR, NJ, WA, NM, MA (if Hilary)
In play
OH, IN, MO, PA
In play w/ Lieberman
RI, CT, NY, ME, VT, NH, NY
The key to November is again in the South (VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, TN, KY, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX). But first, McCain & Rollins need to figure out whether they will face Hilary or Obama.
If it's Hilary, McCain has to calculate if it's better to try to appeal to Huckabee backers and actual "hold their nose to vote for McCain" conservatives & Republicans (3 distinct groups) OR to appeal to African-Americans & Clinton-fatigued Democrats with Lieberman.
If it's Obama, McCain is weighing Huckabee & the above 3 GOP groups versus Lieberman & white, racist Democrats and other Clinton backers.
My bet is that McCain will continue to string Huckabee along and use Huckabee to stay in the race and split the consevative vote unitl he has enough delegates to lock up the nomination. After that, McCain will resort back to his nature, stab his fellow Republican in the back and select Lieberman as his VP.
And when that happens, Victor Davis Hanson and the rest of the McCain apologists will still defend him.
Me too.
And with the news today that Dr. James Dobson will not support John McCain under any circumstances, things will only get worse.
Dobson made that announcement in January of '07. He has always found McCaine extremely distasteful. The first eliminated by Dobson was Giuliani, the second McCain. The third was Romney (at about the same time as McCain), though based mainly on the idea that Evangelicals would find it hard to vote for a Mormon, and then Fred late in the summer. Sometime shortly thereafter, he gave a nod to Huckabee, Tancredo, Hunter, and Brownback, though endorsing none over the other.
Instead, we're going to get stuck with McCain as our nominee and Dobson's single-issue evangelicals won't even get lip service in a McCain or - more likely - Obama/Hilary administration.
That does look to be the case, but the spoiler isn't Huckabee. The spoiler is Romney.
And for those evangelicals who are pinning their hopes on McCain selecting Huckabee as his Vice Presidential nominee
Such a case is very unlikely, and those who promote it here on FR, are without a reasonable knowledge of Conservatism. Huck and Romney are fighting for the Conservative vote. McCain has none of that. He is an establishment RINO, and as such represents the liberal RINO vote, and has a shot at the seccons (who have no other home, divided w/ Romney). Romney is the "business/free trade/economy" and for some reason the "small government" vote, and Huck represents the socons.
That is why you see a fight between McCain and Romney, fighting over the seccons and the business RINOs, and a fight between Huck and Romney over the socons and libertarians (both of which are futile attempts).
There is no fight between Huck and McCain, because there is no reasonable chance either can take the vote of the other.
My bet is that McCain will continue to string Huckabee along and use Huckabee to stay in the race and split the consevative vote unitl he has enough delegates to lock up the nomination.
This statement is based upon the faulty assumption that Romney could ever own Huckabee's supporters. This notion is most certainly false, as well as any notion that McCain could own those votes.
Your entire overview of McCain's chances due to VP is tainted by te faulty assumption that the Republicans can win any red state with a pro-choice, anti-2a presidential candidate, regardless of his VP pick. A dubious scenario at best.
You are correct that unless the Conservatives field a dark horse or fire up a new party, the Dems are going to take it.
If it is Hillary, expect an easy win, but a reasonably static situation in the House and Senate. If it is Obama, It will be a huge win with coattails, and super-majority a possibility.