I think your points 1 & 2 are probable-bordering-on-what actually-happened.
And points 3 & 4 are likely and fit the facts.
Thanks.
I know point #3 to be a fact, as it was widely reported that Newt was essentially confessing his sin of infidelity to Dobson and seeking absolution.
Newt also had the connections (and political timing) to make Dobson’s leak most effective.