Democrats set for trench warfare

Financial Times ^ | Jan. 27, 2008 | By Edward Luce

[jdm]

Barack Obama’s crushing victory over Hillary Clinton in South Carolina, where he received more votes than Mrs Clinton and John Edwards combined, will restore much of the momentum that he briefly enjoyed following his emphatic victory in Iowa.

But Mr Obama’s stunning win is also likely to polarise further an already bitterly divided Democratic Party as the Clintons pull out all stops to maximise their chances on the “Super Tuesday” February 5 primary of 22 states.

Even before the polls had closed on Saturday, Bill Clinton, who has been widely attacked for allegedly “playing the race card” in the last two weeks, sought to downplay Mr Obama’s victory by comparing it to that of Jesse Jackson, who won the same state twice in 1984 and 1988. Mr Obama’s victory was built on the overwhelming support of African Americans, who make up half of South Carolina’s electorate, and whose support divided 81 per cent to 17 per cent in his favour (John Edwards barely registered).

In response to a question about whether Mr Obama had beaten “two Clintons” as opposed to just Hillary, Bill Clinton replied: “Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in ’84 and ’88. And he ran a good campaign. Senator Obama’s run a good campaign here, he’s run a good campaign everywhere.” The implication was clear: Mr Obama is a black candidate whom blacks disproportionately support.

One measure of how much bitterness is now felt by Obama supporters towards the Clintons occurred at Mr Obama’s victory rally in Columbia, South Carolina when Mr Clinton’s face briefly appeared on the big television screen in the hall. The crowd erupted into boos. Mr Obama did not mention either of the Clintons in his speech. But its entire thrust was to counter the argument that he can be compared to Jesse Jackson or other traditional African-American candidates.

Mr Obama reminded the audience of his victory in the Iowa caucuses on January 3, where more than 95 per cent of the population is white. And he also threw his remarks forward to February 5, where as many Hispanics are likely to vote in states such as New York and California as African Americans. Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for Mrs Clinton in the Nevada caucuses last weekend.

Both candidates now have two victories apiece in the primary process although Mr Obama is slightly ahead on the number of delegates who are bound to support him.

“Well, tonight, the cynics who believed that what began in the snows of Iowa was just an illusion were told a different story by the good people of South Carolina,” Mr Obama told a boisterous crowd who were chanting his campaign mantra, “Yes, we can!”

He added: “After four great contests in every corner of this country, we have the most votes, the most delegates, and the most diverse coalition of Americans we’ve seen in a long, long time. They are young and old; rich and poor. They are black and white; Latino and Asian.”

Mrs Clinton, who left South Carolina for a rally in Tennessee before the results had been formally declared, issued a statement after the result that gave a foretaste of the trench warfare for delegates that is now likely to dominate the remaining weeks – and possibly months – of this primary election.

She congratulated Mr Obama but also mentioned the state of Florida, which holds a nominal Democratic primary vote on Tuesday but where all the Democratic candidates have agreed not to campaign. The state was deprived of all its delegates by the Democratic National Committee for having moved its primary date ahead of “Super Tuesday”.

Mrs Clinton, who is ahead in the polls in Florida, has hinted that she would petition the DNC to allow Florida to regain its delegates after the vote. Any such move could reinforce Mr Obama’s allegation that the Clinton’s are practising a cynical brand of politics. “This will not be easy,” said Mr Obama. “Make no mistake about what we are up against.”

Mrs Clinton maintains poll leads in most of the 22 states set to vote on February 5.

[Enterprise]

Maybe they’ll all get trench foot.

[acapesket]

If wishes were horses.. beggars would ride.

[Jeff Chandler]

Come the election, all the blacks who now hate Hillary and love Ubama will vote Hillary.

You can bank on it.

[Jeff Chandler]

>>If wishes were horses.. beggars would ride.<<

Or they would eat horse meat.

[doc1019]

Most have trench mouth already. ;-)

[DGHoodini]

Living by their “morals” already has them rotting. >Bo)

[Parley Baer]

Hillary only in passing acknowledged Obama’s victory in SC. That will not endear her to the Black voters. Just shows what a witch she is.

[Reaganesque]

We may be witnessing the death of the myth that says Democrats can't be racists. Many black leaders are already publicly asking if they haven't been "played" by the Democrats. The fact that Mr. and Mrs. Clinton are trying to label Obama as the "black" candidate in an effort to appeal to white Liberals while denying they're doing so, is not going unnoticed by black Liberals.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out but, I still think Hillary will be the nominee, as the Clintons own the DNC but, her victory over Obama may so damage the Democrats that they can't win in November. It is hard to see how the black vote, the Democrat's most reliable constituency, would turn out for her after what Mrs. Clinton, her husband and their surrogates will do to Obama over the next several weeks. Get the popcorn out kids, its going to be interesting!

[Joshua]

I think after what they have seen a large number will sit it out

[Rome2000]

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2008 Democratic Convention Watch

News and views about the 2008 Democratic National Convention and the race for the nomination

Delegate Trackers

Without Michigan and Florida

Candidate	Delegates (CNN)	Super delegates	Total
Clinton	48	182	230
Obama	63	86	149
Edwards	26	28	54
Uncommitted	0	424	424
Updated 1/26/2008	Delegates Needed: 2025

Superdelegate Comparison

Candidate	DCW	CNN	CBS	AP
Clinton	182	182	207	201
Obama	86	89	112	102
Edwards	28	35	38	34
Updated 1/26/2008

Includes Michigan and Florida

Candidate	Delegates (CNN)	Super delegates	Total
Clinton	121	192	313
Obama	63	89	152
Edwards	26	29	55
Uncommitted	55	459	514
Updated 1/26/2008	Delegates Needed: 2208

View Superdelegates that have officially endorsed a candidate here

Superdelegates who have not endorsed

[jdm]

Come the election, all the blacks who now hate Hillary and love Ubama will vote Hillary.

Hillary has to win the nomination first. She and Obama can't both be the Democrat choice (and I don't think either would want the other for their VP).

[smoothsailing]

Obama better call his momma..

[kempo]

She will get their vote in the end.

[DLfromthedesert]

That’s why the Republican nominee needs to pick Michael Steele as his running mate.

[Rudder]

Obama’s stunning win is also likely to polarise further an already bitterly divided Democratic Party...

It's divided, alright---about 67% in Obama's favor. It'll be hard this coming Monday to find a single democrat publically singing Hillary's praises.

[Rome2000]

Its not too hard to see that Obama will be the VP or the backlash will be catastrophic.

That, coupled with a the prospect of a liberal running for the GOP like MYTH WILLARD is pretty ominous

[Ronin]

I am making no bones about my desire for an Obama win for the DemonCrap nomination — but despite this win in South Carolina, I don’t think it is likely.

The Clintons are never more dangerous than they are in this condition, and if Obama thinks they have been fighting dirty before he is about to find out what the word really means.

And yes, once crowned, the blacks who now hate her gut will pull the lever for her in November, or at best, stay home. They won’t vote Republican in any numbers to be significant.

[psjones]

That’s probably what the clintons are banking on. They’re arrogant enough to assume they’ll get back the black vote. Grab the popcorn, this is getting verrrrrrrrrrry interesting.

[SamAdams76]

Come the election, all the blacks who now hate Hillary and love Ubama will vote Hillary.

I'm not so sure about that. Obama is not like the Jesse Jackson type candidates of yesteryear. Obama is a bona-fide candidate who has already been elected to high office. Nobody ever took Jesse Jackson's presidential runs seriously and even Jesse himself would show up at the convention to endorse the nominee.

If the Clintons end up stealing the nomination through parlor tricks (i.e. having Michigan and Florida delegates count after all and sewing up the super-delegates), I just don't see Obama toadying up to them and accepting a VP slot or otherwise endorsing them in any way. And I would expect a lot of Obama supporters to sit the election out. I don't see many of them voting Republican but I do see them sitting out in large numbers.