In January 1996 Dole was the Senate Majority Leader and the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Dole convinced Speaker Gingrich to fold up the federal government shutdown stalemate with President Clinton and allow Dole to lead the GOP via his presidential campaign.
Remember, the 1994 Contract with America was a House election program. The GOP Senate did NOT sign on to the program and reluctantly followed Gingrich's lead while watering down each and every one of the Contract's provisions.
Gingrich was left with the choice of fighting Clinton and the media by himself with Candidate Dole seeking a different path from the House GOP or deferring to Dole's presidential campaign and resuming the conservative battle together with his friend Trent Lott to keep President Dole honest. Gingrich made the wrong choice.
We all remember what happened. The conservative House leadership lost some of their ability to control their more moderate members. Dole lost. Lott built his own voice separate from the House. And with no help from Lott & the GOP Senate and a Clinton veto looming on all conservative issues, Gingrich, Armey & DeLay focused much of their efforts on the growing Clinton scandals.
Gingrich was able to maintain order within the House even during the Clinton impeachment. But after the Senate RINOs failed to do their duty and convict Clinton, the House moderates began feeling their oats.
Then, the impact of the missing FBI files took effect. Allegations of marital affairs Gingrich and Hyde took their toll. Seeing his conservative House coaliton dissipate and Lott's desire to set on a different path, Gingrich stepped down as Speaker. Then his presumed successor, Bob Livingston from Louisiana, was also taken out by a marital affair.
The GOP was then stuck with the lackluster Dennis Hastert as Speaker to help moderate Armey & DeLay. The muzzling of conservative GOP leadership in Congress was calculated to appear less confrontational after failing to take out Bill Clinton. It also helped to clear the agenda of party leadership for the 2000 GOP presidential candidates. And in 2000, conservatives settled for the "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush. Many conservatives stayed home, nearly costing Bush the presidency and actually losing GOP control of the Senate in 2000.
To be fair, I thank God everyday for W's leadership in dealing with 911. But Bush also squandered the opportunity to push the party and country to the right following that horrible event. The GOP regained control of the Senate in 2002, but based solely on national security concerns, not conservative social and economic principles. Meanwhile, the House drifted further to the center.
Conservative fears of repeating Florida 2000 helped Bush win reelection in 2004, despite the party's overall drift to the center. By now, any conservative elements in the House and Senate were in complete retreat. The moderates ruled the roost in both houses. RINO defections on the Iraq war, wasteful earmarks and ethics scandals were now front and center for the GOP. The only conservative victories of 2005-06 were the confirmations of Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court. And it took a battle to defeat Bush on his nomination of Harriet Miers to do it.
By Fall 2006 conservatives had become utterly disheartened. Attempts to make the Bush tax cuts permanent stalled, the continued treachery of Arlen Spector, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the Gang of 14, increased dissatisfaction with George Bush and the Miers nomination debacle all caused conservatives to stay home in November 2006. And the GOP lost both the House and Senate.
Occasionally, the conservative movement can still rise up. The reaction to the Amnesty bill was encouraging. But other than that, conservatives have again been wandering in the wilderness. GOP moderates and RINO's have been resistant to allowing a conservative to assume leadership in Congress. And any potential conservative congressional leader has held back in part due to the extremely early start of the 2008 presidential race.
And what did conservatives get for 2008 candidates?
No Reagan conservatives who possess all three legs of the coalition stool - strong national defense, social conservatism, economic conservatism.
Nope. Instead, we got Rudy Giuliani. An autocrat who has little affection for social conservatives, but pledged to nominate strict construction judges. Whoopee!
We got John McCain. An angry RINO maverick who enjoys flouting social and economic conservatives AND even the GOP establishment to gain favor and positive reviews from the liberal media.
We got Mitt Romey, an uber-wealthy GOP establishment moderate. At least Romney panders to social and economic conservatives with recently discovered flip-flopped positons on issues of importance to those two factions.
We got Ron Paul, a true blue, libertarian nutbag. Paul has a few economic bona fides that have pulled away a few non-nut job libertarians. But I'm sorry, Dr. Paul is a kook.
We got Mike Huckabee - the Dope from Hope, part II. While he is just as manipulative as Bill Clinton, Huckabee is nowhere near as smart.
And we got the Obscure 4 - Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes, Tommy Thompson & Duncan Hunter. Tancredo & Keyes are single issue candidates. Tommy & Dunc are well-rounded politicians (especially Hunter), but they lacked the ability to have broad nationwide appeal.
Seeing this morass of blech, Fred Thompson entered the fray expecting to be the saviour of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Fred should have been that candidate.
Unfortunately, Dr. James Dobson and a few evangelical leaders decided to cut off their nose to spite their face. You see, Fred's not a Bible thumper, but neither was Ronald Reagan. Fred is a federalist. Fred refused to kiss Dobson's ring of evangelical purity. Fred also decided to skip the barely relevant Values Voter debate.
Flim Flam Huckabee seized on that opportunity. Hucakbee played Dobson into thinking that Dobson could play kingmaker. A handful of evangelical leaders blindly pushed Huckabee as a viable conservative. The media, who knows a GOP loser when they see one, helped fan the flames of Huckabee's support. For a time, the scheme worked. Huckabee won Iowa, but eventually the truth of Huckabee's Christian Socialism became evident to most conservatives.
But the damage had been done. Social conservatives were now spilt. Some had been taken in by Huckabee's class warfare. Some had been taken in by the media's false depiction of Fred as a lazy campaigner and settled for Romney, Rudy or, worse, McCain.
Added into this deceptive mix was the ability of independents and Democrats to particpate in and distort the Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina Republican primaries. Media darling McCain was back! McCain - the new Comeback Kid - was ready to lead....the GOP down to defeat. Meanwhile, Fred's race and the ability for the GOP to unify behind a Reaganesque conservative died.
At best, the GOP could still end up with a Bush-lite nominee like Mitt Romney. I think he will at least pretend to care about conservative ideals from his Country Club wing of the party.
At worst, the GOP could end up with John McCain. McCain, the perennial thorn in the GOP's side who was once touted as a possible VP running mate for John Kerry!
Yes, it was Bob Dole who set conservatives off on their road to destruction, but it was Dr. James Dobson who has given the GOP this Dobson's Choice.
I like your anaylysis & think it’s spot on.