It’s funny you say that because polls consistently show McCain as the only candidate who wins New Mexico. The reason McCain can and will win is because of all the candidates he can distinguish himself from Bush on an array of issues.
Polls this far out are absolutely meaningless. Six months ago Rudy was the invincible frontrunner in all of those polls. Now he’s fighting to stay alive, which is the same place McCain will be in six months.
The poll that matters is the one on this website where McCain only holds 1/3 of the Republican base. Even if half those saying “no” right now eventually hold their noses and vote for him, he still loses about 30% of the base. In a country split 50/50, there’s no way to make that up. The “Independents” (i.e, crossover Dems) who’ve gotten him this far will vote for Hillary when the time comes, bank on it. Don’t believe the hype that everybody hates her. The Republican base hates her, but plenty of moderates, independents and women will have no trouble voting for her along with the Democrat base, which is desperate for a win.
Without the conservative base, McCain loses. Supposedly he’s a frontrunner in Florida, if you believe the MSM, but I see more yard signs and bumperstickers for Hillary here along the I-4 corridor than for McCain. There are none, zero, nada, for McCain, and this is the “moderate” part of Florida, with RINOs and “independents” abounding. What should be McCain country, but apparently isn’t.
If the economy continues its downward trajectory, McCain won’t hold Ohio and I don’t see him holding my state, either. Without Florida and Ohio, there’s no route to the Presidency for McCain.