Sniffle, that's so touching.
Posted on 01/24/2008 8:01:05 AM PST by Liz
DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla. - Rudy Giuliani splurged on Florida, lavishing time and money on a high-risk gamble that the state would vault him to the Republican presidential nomination. Five days before his make-or-break primary, all that last year's national front-runner has to show for the love he's given the Sunshine State is a diminished standing. "We are gaining support. I think you'll see that over the next few days," Giuliani insisted Wednesday, hours before a new poll showed him trailing John McCain and Mitt Romney. Florida was supposed to be "Rudy Country."
His game plan called for playing down earlier-voting states for a laser focus on Florida and its 57-delegate prize. He pumped more than $3 million into advertising and planted himself here, counting on a win to give him unbeatable momentum going into the voting by nearly two dozen states on Feb. 5. The nomination was to follow. All that now is in danger.
McCain and Romney grabbed headlines by winning states that voted earlier; Giuliani won nothing and stayed out of the picture. Polls this week, even in his home state of New York, an expected bulwark for him on Feb. 5, showed him tied or behind. His once huge advantage in California is no more, either.
In Florida, a new poll shows McCain and Romney neck-and-neck for the lead, with 25 percent and 23 percent, respectively, while Giuliani and Mike Huckabee trail at 15 percent. More than one-fourth of the likely voters surveyed between Sunday and Tuesday — 27 percent — said they still may change their minds. The poll was sponsored by the St. Petersburg Times, The Miami Herald and Bay News 9. Undeterred, Giuliani said, "We are going to accomplish it against the odds."
He argued that his message just needs a little more time to sink in. He's the only Republican supporting a national catastrophic insurance fund important to many hurricane-weary and cash-strapped Floridians, he has what he calls the largest tax-cut proposal of any candidate and says he has the most relevant government experience. "As these ideas seep through, I think we're going to do well here," Giuliani said.
It's possible that absentee and early voters could give Giuliani a bump in Tuesday's primary. He has get-out-the-vote programs catering to both, and these voters would have cast ballots before Giuliani's decline and McCain's ascent. He's also counting on a large number of New York retirees in Florida to carry him to victory, but its unclear how many are registered to vote, let alone as a Republican. This isn't the first time Giuliani has tried to compete only to hit a rocky patch.
He peppered Iowans with mailed campaign literature and some $300,000 in radio advertisements, only to finish sixth behind little-known Texas Rep. Ron Paul in the leadoff contest. New Hampshire's primary proved embarrassing as well with more than $3 million spent on ads and mail and countless visits — and a fourth-place showing.
"Everywhere this guy has gone, he's faded," said GOP strategist Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster. As polls shifted, Giuliani has changed his story on Florida's importance. "It's all about Florida," he said Monday. Now, his campaign says the state merely is an "important" part of the race — though it's unclear whether he has the money to be competitive later.
Senior aides have forgone paychecks this month. Giuliani was getting beat 2-1 earlier this week in TV-ad spending in several of the state's expensive media markets; he poured more money to his buys late Wednesday, which may have brought him to parity.
Alone for weeks in Florida, Giuliani taunted his opponents Saturday as they competed in South Carolina. "We're waiting for you," he said then.
Judging from the last few days, he would just as soon have them leave again. Giuliani faced crowds that were a bit flat and small early this week. He got polite applause in a large but half-empty community hall in Sun City Center, where retirement is the local industry. And only a few dozen people showed up at the aptly chosen Presidential Ballroom at Church Street, a banquet facility near downtown Orlando. He took precious time away from Florida on Tuesday to fly to New York to collect campaign cash, leaving his schedule light — only four public events in three days. He devoted other time to media interviews and cutting a final Florida ad.
Earlier this week, Giuliani's campaign also appeared to squander a golden opportunity when McCain said he does not support the federally backed catastrophic insurance fund. Instead of seizing on the comment himself, Giuliani left it to aides and surrogates who got little attention. He rolled out an advertisement seeking to strike a contrast with the Arizona senator — but it didn't name McCain and was aimed only for the Internet, not the vastly wider reach of TV. On Thursday, his campaign announced that the spot would, indeed, be broadcast on TV.
At one point, Giuliani made an unscheduled visit to the Daytona International Speedway for a photo op of the former mayor speeding in circles in his campaign bus around the racetrack inside the empty stadium, perhaps an almost too-perfect metaphor for his effort here. Wednesday in Estero, he even gave the impression of being bored with his own message. "I've given this lecture on leadership so many times, I could probably do it in my sleep," he said to laughter.
By evening, though, his campaign staged a rally that served as an unexpected counterpoint to the bad news. bout 1,000 people filled a plaza along the beach town of Naples' main street and crammed an adjacent Irish pub where Giuliani was just supposed to shake a few hands and make remarks. It turned out to be the largest, most welcoming crowd Giuliani drew all week, though a request for a show of hands from an introductory speaker revealed that a sizable portion was from New York — not Florida. Despite some testy feelings about a long wait, people cheered repeatedly and mobbed the restaurant to try to get to him. The enthusiasm had Giuliani unusually animated. He seemed to argue, without saying it directly, that the polling is bogus.
"We're going to surprise everyone," he shouted into a microphone, standing among the restaurants' outdoor tables. "And we're going to win big here. Florida is going to catapult us to the nomination because Florida is going to vote in a way that I think people don't even realize." Jennifer Loven reported from Naples, Fla.
The thought of Rooty in the WH sending our brave soldiers into war to fight for the right to kill babies is nauseating.
For example, Rudy's helping China go nuclear.
Giuliani's global law firm Bracewell & Giuliani (with two law offices in Kazakhstan--a former Soviet state), said that Kazakh companies are coming of age and expanding globally; it’s a way to shore up partners, other than Russia, for Kazakh's nuclear-related transport industry. Read on.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007, By Bonnie Pfister, TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Kazakhstan, an Ex-Soviet state eyes uranium primacy With Giuliani's help, an American company Westinghouse has been allowed to deliver its newest third-generation nuclear plant to China.
GIMME THAT AGAIN. "Has been allowed"? Actually, if Rudy has his way, Americans are quite possibly going to pay for these nuclear plants to be built.
The US federal Ex-Im Bank http://www.exim.gov) approved up to $5 billion in loan guarantees or even direct loans for this project back in 2005, although apparently, no specific funding guarantee or allocation has yet been made. That would change if Rudy gets presidential power.
Back in June, 2007, and article from Human Events reported "Administration Poised to Subsidize China’s Nuclear Industry," ---covers the Ex-Im political situation up to that point.
In November, 2007, technical article on Red China's nuclear power situation from the World Nuclear Association, Nuclear Power in China, which also has a bit about the funding and more detail about what contracts nuclear players are already involved in the PRC.
“McCain said he does not support the federally backed catastrophic insurance fund”
Only McCain has the stones to come to Florida and say this. (Or go to Michigan and tell the truth about the auto industry or Iowa and not back ethanol subsidies).
What’s Romney’s position? Somehow, I bet he’ll come out with a way to “strengthen” this program and will do some more pandering so folks can rest assure that if their houses built teetering over the ocean get blown away in a hurricane, Mitt will be there with the federal government to clean up after the mess. Where ever there are votes to be had Mitt is there with with the “right” position and some tv spots to prove how sincere he is.
I have been wondering about the effect of early voting too. In SurveyUSA’s latest poll, 20% of respondents had already voted. Their votes were significantly more tilted to McCain (31%) than those who had not yet voted.
This group was only 100 people so hard to say how representative it really is. This is one wild primary.
jmj3jude lives in Port St. Lucie.....got any reports on Brevard?
Sniffle, that's so touching.
The polls said the Guliani was the inevitable candidate for the GOP a couple of months ago. You should know that the drive-by media polls are designed to shape public opinion not inform the public.
The polls indicated that Rudy was the top pick at the time, before multiple scandals came out about him. The polls did not say that he would remain the top pick even if such scandals emerged or his big-state strategy failed. They can't factor in major influences that have not happened yet.
You should know that the drive-by media polls are designed to shape public opinion not inform the public.
If that were the case, polls would not change.
Polls measure public opinion, whether you want to believe it or not. This is not to deny that an unscrupulous pollster can manipulate the questions to bias the results. But reputable pollsters provide the questions and related data so we can judge whether the poll was done properly.
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