Posted on 01/23/2008 7:04:44 PM PST by WillRain
A veteran of Louisiana state campaigns offers this ironic suggestion about last night's Louisiana GOP primary — Fred Thompson won, or would have done well, had he not dropped out hours earlier.
Louisiana's social conservatives created the winning "Pro-life, Pro-family" slate in early January largely because we didn't know if Fred was still going to be a candidate at the time of our caucuses (turns out that he wasn't, by a few hours). Because we had almost all the state's social conservative leaders for Fred, we were also able to stave off Huckabee by use of this "pro-life, pro-family" slate. I was really pleased with the win last night, as it's not easy to beat McCain, Romney, and Paul without a candidate, but that's what we did.
About 90 percent of the pro-family slate was actually Thompson supporters. If Fred were to jump back into the race, he would almost certainly pick up all 47 of Louisiana's delegates (the whole point of LA's complicated system was to have an early vote while still not losing half our delegates like all the other early states have). That would put him AHEAD of McCain in the delegate count and only narrowly trailing Romney.
This Louisianan's take contradicts that of the state party, who contended there was overlap between the pro-family slate and McCain.
I bounced the above comments off another campaign, who said it was plausible that most, or at least a good chunk, of the "Pro-Life, Pro-Family" folks were Fredheads.
I almost hesitate to post this, as I realize that for Fredheads lamenting the end of his campaign, the thought of him getting out right before a potential win is like rubbing salt in the wound...
It wouldn’t have mattered because you can’t even tell there WAS a LA primary by watching TV (at least I haven’t noticed any coverage).
Excatly.
There wasn't a Louisiana primary. It was one of those unrepresentative caucuses.
There was an LA primary? Dang...if I hadn’t been online I would have not known.
Unbelievable.
Yeah the media isn’t biased.
This was some kind of unofficial caucus.
thanks.
I won’t vote for Huckaboob, McCain, or Mittens. I am thinking we should keep voting for Fred to send the Republican party and the MSM a message. We ought to try to keep a 10% vote for Fred - all you new Mittwits really think Flipper will stay conservative when he starts looking for Dem votes in the general may not be thinking clearly. But we need to keep the campaign going, because as devoted as FRedheads are, we alone do not make 10% of the voters. We need to campaign for Fred, to go door to door, to call voters, to put up signs, to write letters to the editor, and to keep those bumper stickers on our cars. Not only that, but we need to do it fast.
We need to get those voter lists from the supervisor of elections and start calling today. Are we committed enough to recruit and organize volunteers? Because if we want Fred’s message to reach the people, we will have to do it for him without him.
I haven’t heard a William Sherman statement from Fred “If nominated, I will not accept; if drafted, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve.” Let us overlook the horror of someone from the South citing Sherman, and feel secure in our knowledge that FDT loves his country too much to turn it down.
Ready to go to work? Remember, it isn’t over until I sing — and I forgot the lyrics, so I ain’t singing. We need to keep buying tickets to the dance for Fred. Of course, it wouldn’t hurt if some of the folks who worked with the campaign were to (unofficially at least) help out with materials, lists, etc. But if we want to keep it going, it comes down to us.
Shout it from the rooftops, post it on the blogs, send it to the talk shows - and scare the poop out of the drive-by media. If we can get even 8% of the vote for a candidate who isn’t actively seeking the nomination, it sure as shootin’ will send a message to the powers-that-be in the Republocrat part. Might even turn it back into the Republican party.
OK? G-d bless our great Republic, and keep FDT on the ballots.
There was a pre-arranged slate of delegates designated “Uncommitted Pro-life pro-family” and that slate of delegates won.
Caucuses make my head hurt.
It’s being reported that John McCain won, Ron Paul came in 2nd.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5i2YCtBg15ovSmHo1y23Qc4oc_cdQ
It’s being reported that John McCain won, Ron Paul came in 2nd.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5i2YCtBg15ovSmHo1y23Qc4oc_cdQ
Apparently 90% of the slate of delegates that won had Thompson as their first choice.
Personally, I like Ron Paul. I also liked Thompson, Hunter and Tancredo.
From what I hear, the Pro Life Pro Family slate wasn’t really all Thompsons, but it was put together by Buddy Romer about a week ago. The slate was designed, I guess, just to get local politican types, local party regulars their usual seat at the State Convention. McCain delegates appeared on the PLPF slate, as well as on the McCain slate, which helped to give McCain the first place finish (for now, before the Provisionals are counted in).
This was not an “unofficial caucus”.
It was real.
The delegates elected last night go to the state convention where they will vote for the delegates to be sent to the national convention.
A slate of “uncommitted, pro-life, pro-family” delegates won the vast majority of delegate spots last night, giving them effective control over who is sent to the national convention.
Louisiana then has a “primary” on Feb 9th, which only has an effect if a candidate wins over 50% of the vote that day, which is unlikely. Even if one were to win over 50%, it would still only guarantee them 20 of Louisiana’s 47 delegates at the national convention. The rest of the delegates remain technically “uncommitted” regardless.
The reality is, nearly 90% of that winning slate are/was Thompson supporters, so he would have almost certainly received nearly all, if not all, of Louisiana’s 47 delegates at the national convention.
The slate was not put together by Roemer.
It was put together by Ross Little, Louisiana’s Republican National Committeeman.
Little is/was a Thompson supporter.
See http://ringsidepolitics.com/The-News/-Rumors/Republican-Caucuses-in-Louisiana/
Louisiana did not have a primary yet, they had a caucus to elect delegates. The Louisiana primary will be on 02-09.
Ok, I heard a rumor about that. It sounds like you have a better understanding of it. From what I understand, though, many of the typical state politicos decided to join the Thompson slate a while ago.
You may be correct on that point.
A big problem down here is that Louisiana’s Republican party has some identity issues, rooted in the fact that for so long this state was absolutely DOMINATED by the Democrats. To be a Republican was just about political suicide.
Now that being “conservative” and Republican is seemingly the way to go in many areas of the state (mainly outside New Orleans and parts of Baton Rouge) many a former Democrat have switched to the Republican party.
Unfortunately, many of them, whether truly conservative or merely “conservative” out of political expediency, have continued to cling to the tried-and-true “good ol’ boy” style of politics that has ALWAYS dominated down here.
So... You end up getting all of the same people coalescing together year after year, rarely weeding out the frauds from the authentic.
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