N. Korea: Regime collapse in Pyongyang (no-notice regime collapse)

WT ^ | 01/21/08 | Daniel L. Davis

[TigerLikesRooster]

As I said many times, N. Korean regime will be most likely to implode without much advance warning, considering that it refuses change with tooth and nail and none of major players surrounding N. Korea is willing to upset the status quo.

The longer the current situation lasts, the more chaotic the eventual collapse would be.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[RightWhale]

Right. Like Cuba will collapse, Iran will collapse, Venezuela will collapse. As if nobody there has a clue what to do. The only country of consequence that might actually collapse is Pakistan, and that won’t happen while the Army exists.

[kinoxi]

It’s going to be ugly when it happens.

[Citizen Tom Paine]

IMHO The ChiComs are ready to march. Their goal of the 50s will be achieved.

[RightWhale]

N Kor has nothing China needs or wants. Maybe a shipyard, but that wouldn’t be worth sending in a squadron of traffic cops.

[TigerLikesRooster]

For three countries you mentioned, they at least have something to eat. Venezuela and Iran have lots of oil to sell. Cuba manages to live off its land.

For N. Korea, it is different. Current N. Korean regime needs air-tight state control to survive. It is a cult commune. Without it, it will collapse, and state control is not what it used to be. It will go bang in one of these days.

[TigerLikesRooster]

N. Korea is China's important buffer. North East corner of N. Korea also provide vital access to the sea for land-locked Eastern Manchuria region.

It has a lot of strategic value to China.

[grey_whiskers]

Let's send in Tom Cruise when Chia Pet kicks the bucket.

He acts like enough of a fruit loop. /sarc>

Cheers!

[RightWhale]

Maybe something to that, but Russia owned it last before the Japanese and that is possibly where WW III will begin and the USA need not be involved.

[SlapHappyPappy]

Cuba, Iran and Venezuela have nowhere near the problems North Korea has. They have widespread starvation and, even with the allies they do have, barely can provide enough fuel to meet the needs of their military.

While the people may not revolt, there are those in positions of power who would like to be in total control, and eventually there will be action along those lines.

Likely, when one player makes a move it will be a free-for-all, as no-one has been given enough power to do it alone, and nobody trusts anyone else.

[Judith Anne]

What with N. Korean citizens do? Which way do they lean? Suppose they want unity with S. Korea, then what does China do—and how will Japan react to that?

[ME-262]

It’s going to be ugly when it happens.

It is already ugly there. Eating tree bark to stay alive isn't as glamorous as it sounds.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Well, I am not sure “not getting involved” would make things better. Emboldened China would become more aggressive, raising the risk.

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

Pretty lame article. He makes one prediction and then starts issuing directives.

If NK collapses suddenly, we have nothing to worry about.

China will move in quickly and fill the void. Any plans that we and other nations make would be useless.

[Popman]

It’s going to be ugly when it happens.

Ugly is probably a serious understatement.

Between the physical hardship, psychological brain washing and brutal repression North Korea will take decades to normalize

[kinoxi]

From what I understand, they eat each other to survive. Border nations need to rush in when this happens to keep their populace from being plundered/slaughtered for food.

[kinoxi]

Rehabilitating trained pit bulls.

[TigerLikesRooster]

I don’t know. Since S. Korean Constitution spells out N. Korea as its territory, S. Korean military may also have to move up. If they don’t, S. Korean government would be in real political crisis because of huge popular backlash.

[ovrtaxt]

What with N. Korean citizens do? Which way do they lean? Suppose they want unity with S. Korea, then what does China do—and how will Japan react to that?

Those poor people probably just want a sandwich.