Posted on 01/23/2008 8:11:24 AM PST by freespirited
...What's clear is that with Thompson out, the crowd on the ideological right grows less crowded.
The exit polls from the Palmetto State underscore Thompson's appeal to the most conservative GOP voters. Among the voters who described themselves as "very conservative" Huckabee led the way with 41%, but Thompson claimed 22% percent (McCain placed third with 19% followed by Romney with 16%).
"Based on South Carolina, a state that Thompson worked pretty hard, his departure would seem to help Huckabee and Romney probably more so than McCain," said Neil Newhouse, an [unaffiliated] Republican pollster..
Given Thompson's strengths with very conservative voters and evangelicals, it seems as though Huckabee should be the obvious beneficiary. But Huckabee hasn't won a contest since Iowa, and his dearth of cash raises real questions about whether he will be able to capitalize on Thompson's departure in Florida.
Enter Romney who is campaigning hard for the votes of conservatives in Florida and [who] will almost certainly spend the most money on reaching voters in the Sunshine State. ... Thompson's departure coupled with Huckabee's uncertain commitment to the state give the former Massachusetts governor the best chance he's had yet.
While Thompson's exit could well help Romney or Huckabee in the short run, his departure could accrue to McCain's benefit in the long-term battle for the nomination. ..
... The Post's last national poll suggests that McCain may gain a very slight boost from Thompson's departure. If Thompson is eliminated and his supporters' second choices are re-allocated, that poll showed McCain leading the Republican field with 30% -- 2% higher than he received with Thompson included in the ballot test. The only other candidate to make gains with the reallocation of Thompson supporters was Giuliani, who went from 15% with Thompson in to 18% with him out.
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
Gotten in while the iron was hot.
By the time he got in, I was already working for another campaign and didn’t trust him to be invested in the race - I was right.
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