QUESTION for you all:
WHEN (not if) Huckabean drops out, what percentage of his followers will go for ROMNEY and what percentage for McNugget??? __________________
I don’t know enough about Evangelicals (I usually ignore them), to know what their inclination would be. So maybe some of you have a better grasp on this.
We now know that:
1. Many of Thompson’s backers seem to go for Romney because he’s more conservative than the others.
2. Huckabee WILL be withdrawing eventually (prob after Feb 5th).
3. The massive shift of followers from these two candidates will play a key role in who is the front runner thereafter.
I agree with you that shortly Huckabee will drop. I can’t see him being much of a factor come the big states of Super Tuesday and with no campaign cash to spend on major advertising/workers/ etc.
As to where his supporters will go I really have no idea. Dobson went for Romney and Robertson went for Guiliani if I remember correct.. I honestly have no real feel for how they’d break at this time.
I also think if Guiliani doesn’t win FL he can pack it in and we’ll be left with McCain vs. Romney. McCain is drawing in money based on news I heard somewhere today. Something like $200,000/day and Romney has money to lend his campaign if need be. Also McCain seems to still be doing well in the polls, FL/NY. That has to hurt Guiliani.
Many think this will be a brokered convention. I don’t as I think at some point one of the three, Guiliani, McCain, Romney will break out to secure enough delegates to win.
Politics is a game of expectations, some rise to those expectations while most fall short. Hunter, Tancredo, and Thompson fell short but they tried.