While this would obviously be true in most cases, I wouldn't bet on it given the leading candidates on the Dem side. I mean seriously, if the economy is faltering are voters really going to put their faith in Hillary over, say, Mitt Romney?
I believe you credit voters with far more sense than has been demonstrated in the past...
voters will vote - esp. in a recession, if we are to have one - for the candidate who promises to write them the largest checks.