[CommerceComet]

With a large African-American turnout and a depressed evangelical turnout, Obama would have a reasonable shot at Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia, all states where 25% or more of the population is African-American. Historically, AA have voted at a lower rate than whites in these states, so there is a potential for a lot of new voters.

Under this scenario, both Missouri and Arkansas would be in play despite having smaller AA populations. Missouri is probably a toss-up state right now and a large AA turnout in SL and KC could tip a close election to Obama. Arkansas still has a fairly large Democrat base and could become a clear majority if the AA vote is larger than normal.

[kabar]

No way will Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina go Dem in 2008.