[RSmithOpt]

"There are two circumstances in which he will: real estate appears to bottom out or interest rates appear to bottom out and are starting to rise. We are not close to either of those conditions."

and IMHO, that's about a 30-35% correction in asking price for a (new) home in what once was the hottest 30-40 markets and for the overnight prime to readjust to something near 7% and sit there for a while. 30 year fixed maybe in the range of 8-8.5% to weed out the unaffordables and maybe even a serious curtailing of the ARM (only to top credit rated borrowers) as to steady returns in the banking industry.

[montag813]

30 year fixed maybe in the range of 8-8.5% to weed out the unaffordables

We will see sub-4% first. The 10yr note will go below 3.5% tomorrow.