Posted on 01/21/2008 2:59:17 AM PST by Matchett-PI
Bottom line excerpt:
"An excellent case can be made to allow McCain and Giuliani to duke it out in Florida there at the cost of millions of dollars (which might well bankrupt the loser) while the other campaigns look to Super Tuesday on February 5 and attempt to pick off potential wins among the two-score states which will be in play on that day."
Saturday's election contests in South Carolina and Nevada provided enough ammunition for the National Punditry Class to chew on for the next 10 days.
Florida will hold its primary on January 29 in what the Washington Post's Dan Balz calls "the first Republican primary closed to independent voters, who have provided [Sen. John] McCain with his margins of victory in both New Hampshire and South Carolina."
To review the bidding, McCain beat Mike Huckabee on Saturday in South Carolina by about 14,000 votes 33% - 30%. Fred Thompson came in a distant third with about 16% of the vote. Romney with 15% came in fourth. As you know I have been a paid advisor to the Thompson campaign.
Huckabee the former Governor of a Southern state was counting on a win in South Carolina to offset third place finishes in both New Hampshire and Michigan. Whether because of the snow in the Greenville-Spartanburg area or Thompson's siphoning off nearly 70,000 votes it didn't happen.
McCain needed a win in SC to demonstrate that his strong win in New Hampshire was not just a one-off reprise of 2000. That did happen.
The general feeling of the national press corps which had descended on South Carolina was that Huckabee had made a strategic mistake in competing in Michigan which is Romney's home state. The chatter was that Huckabee believed Romney was in free fall (after coming in second in both Iowa and New Hampshire) and McCain (who had not competed strongly in Michigan) might split the moderate vote allowing Huckabee to buy a "surprise" second place finish on the cheap.
Huckabee came in third at the cost of four days of campaigning which might have been put to better use in South Carolina.
Romney bailed out of South Carolina after his Michigan win did not produce a bounce and took his effort to Nevada where he easily won the majority of delegates available as the result of the caucuses there.
On the Democratic side (whose primary in SC will be held this coming Saturday) Hillary Clinton got credit for a win in Nevada by beating Barack Obama 5,355 to 4,773 - a margin of 582 votes. However, because of the way the caucuses are constructed, Obama actually ended up with on more delegate than Clinton 13-12.
Obama's campaign didn't properly set up the press corps to report the delegate count rather than the popular vote, so Hillary will be remembered has having won the Nevada caucuses.
Wins and losses in this game are more a measure of how a candidate does against what the press corps thought they were going to do, than the realities of the outcome.
As I have described before, it is like corporate earnings reports on CNBC: If a company posts a profit of $1.62 a share for the previous quarter they have clearly shown a profit. If, however, "the Street" thought that company should have posted a profit of $1.64 a share, then it will be reported that the company had a bad quarter.
Moving forward on the GOP side, Florida will be the first full test of the Rudy Giuliani campaign. He stuck his toe into the chilly waters of both Iowa and New Hampshire, but his general strategy has been to make a splash in the warmer waves in Florida.
McCain is fully engaged there as well, but it is not clear as to whether Huckabee, Romney or Thompson will compete in Florida.
An excellent case can be made to allow McCain and Giuliani to duke it out in Florida there at the cost of millions of dollars (which might well bankrupt the loser) while the other campaigns look to Super Tuesday on February 5 and attempt to pick off potential wins among the two-score states which will be in play on that day.
"An excellent case can be made to allow McCain and Giuliani to duke it out in Florida there at the cost of millions of dollars (which might well bankrupt the loser) while the other campaigns look to Super Tuesday on February 5 and attempt to pick off potential wins among the two-score states which will be in play on that day."
((((PING))))
Rich Galen has been a paid advisor to the Thompson campaign all along.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Senate_Centrist_Coalition
According to Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), “The Centrist Coalition is a group of moderate Democrats and Republicans seeking common ground and compromise on issues. ... The Centrist Coalition helps to bridge the two parties ... It brings together progressive national policy initiatives while promoting growth for businesses and increasing personal responsibility for Americans. Most South Dakotans are not left or right-wingers, but instead are right down the middle — they simply want their government to work well and efficiently. The Centrist Coalition is a good step toward bringing the parties together.” December 7, 2000.
[edit]
Influence
In a March 3, 2005, press release, Antonia Ferrier, Senator Snowe’s press secretary said that “’The coalition was started after partisan conflicts between a Republican Congress and President Bill Clinton over balancing the federal budget briefly shut down the government in 1995. Since then, the group has generally met weekly to ‘exchange ideas’ and have ‘open and frank conversations’ in a civil manner about complicated issues ... The group does not have an official membership, but a core group of about 15 senators usually attends,... In past years, the coalition has come up with alternative budget programs,’ Ferrier said.
“The group also exerted influence in helping to push for enactment of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform bill, said Sandy Maisel, director of the Goldfarb Center for Public Affairs and Civic Engagement at Colby College in Waterville, Maine.
“Maisel said the members who frequently attend the coalition’s meetings ‘have the potential to have a great deal of influence’ in the current Senate which is closely divided with 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and Jim Jeffords, a Vermont Independent who usually votes with the Democrats.
“’All they need is a swing group of about six or seven, and then they can be very influential,’ he said.” [2]
[edit]
Leadership: 109th Congress
On November 12, 2004, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (D-CT) and Senator Olympia J. Snowe (R-ME) “announced the formation of the Senate Centrist Coalition for the 109th Congress. Lieberman will be replacing Senator John Breaux (D-LA) as the Democratic co-chair with Snowe serving as the Republican co-chair.” [3]
* “Sen. Snowe became co-chair of the Senate Centrist Coalition after the death of Sen. John Chafee of Rhode Island in 1999.” [4]
Snowe and Lieberman also announced that the following week, they would “convene a meeting of the Coalition to discuss plans for the 109th Congress, and ways to advance legislation in the months ahead, and discuss the Coalition’s agenda and organization.
“’As we look toward the next Congress and the issues that will likely be on the Senate’s agenda, the importance of consensus-building has grown even greater. The serious foreign and domestic challenges our Nation faces demand that we transcend partisanship to find common ground and practical solutions that unite mainstream Republicans and Democrats alike. The Centrist Coalition provides a critical forum for members to meet and craft solutions that can garner broad-based support across the political aisle,’ Snowe and Lieberman said in a joint letter to their colleagues.” [5]
On November 16, 2004, Senators Lieberman and Snowe announced that Senators George V. Voinovich (R-OH) and Ben Nelson (D-NE) had “agreed to serve as Centrist Coalition Republican and Democratic Vice Chairs, respectively.” [6]
According to Senator Voinovich upon his appointment, “We need to put aside the obstructionism that in the past has prevented the Senate from completing essential work. The highway bill, the energy bill and judicial nominations all fell victim to partisanship deadlock. It’s my hope that the 109th Congress will see a renewed commitment from senators on both sides of the aisle to working together to get the job done and the Centrist Coalition can play an important role by encouraging bipartisan dialogue. I’m honored to have been selected to serve as vice chairman and I look forward to contributing to fostering greater bipartisan cooperation in the next two years.” [7]
[edit]
Coalition Members (107th Congress)
* Democrats
* Max Baucus
* Evan Bayh
* John Breaux
* Jean Carnahan
* Tom Carper
* Max Cleland
* Kent Conrad
* John Edwards
* Dianne Feinstein
* Bob Graham
* Tim Johnson
* Herb Kohl
* Mary Landrieu
* Joseph I. Lieberman
* Blanche Lincoln
* Barbara Mikulski
* Zell Miller
* Ben Nelson
* Bill Nelson
* Bob Torricelli
* Debbie Stabenow
* Ron Wyden
* Republicans
* George Allen
* Bob Bennett
* Kit Bond
* John Chafee
* Susan Collins
* Mike DeWine
* Pete Domenici
* Peter Fitzgerald
* Bill Frist
* Judd Gregg
* Chuck Hagel
* Jim Jeffords
* John McCain
* Pat Roberts
* Richard Shelby
* Gordon Smith
* Olympia J. Snowe
* Arlen Specter
**** Fred Thompson ****
* George V. Voinovich
* John Warner
He says so right in the article, so he’s not being deceptive.
Exactly. He always puts that disclaimer in all his commentaries on the campaign.
Ron Paul and his supporters (such as yourself) belong to the kook fringe. You embarrass yourselves and don’t even know it.
This list of names is meaningless. A politician’s membership in a group is no indication of anything, other than his name being on the list. What can you do with this information? Nothing.
Posting lists like this is only a tactic to spread false accusations about the person, in the hopes people don’t find out real information by going to the voting record.
I hate to say this but Fla is a bad place to campaign in SS cuts
in=on
As a Ron Paul supporter, you don’t have much credibility.
“...Ron Paul has worn out his minimal welcome outside neo-nazi circles. Even the 9-11 truthers are tiring of him.
As I see it Fred will have the field pretty much to himself if he sticks with it. .....”
23 posted on 01/21/2008 3:25:22 AM EST by John Valentine
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1956971/posts?page=23#23
I sincerely hope that I have ZERO credibility as a “Ron Paul supporter”!
LOL!!
I wasn’t talking about you. LOL
Nothing, and mean NOTHING, to this point has even remotely resembled the true nature of what the vote will be the first Tuesday after the first Monday in Nov.
Every aspect of this election to date have been nothing more than carefully manipulated press opportunities, including the ‘debates’ where the audience, moderators and question have been crafted to further muddy the waters.
We go through this BS every four years. Early polls and primary elections being used to shape the race and then reporting the very unrepresentative results as Gospel truth, ignoring or over inflating a candidate, etc.
We’re not going to be able to shape the slanted coverage provided some candidates who are the darlings of the press, BUT, this will be a contest where voters are less likely to be able to use their vote to mess with the process.
Even if it doesn’t go well for FredT at least his team will have some objective data to evaluate what’s going on and make adjustments to their campaign, adjustments that are aimed at the REAL picture, not the Photoshopped BS that we’ve had passed on by the MSM so far. Finally, the opportunity to tilt at something beside windmills!
Run, FredT, run!!
Right.
Don't overestimate yourself, lol
Exactly. Open primaries should be shunned by ALL Republicans for the very reason that they give our political enemies an opening to decide FOR us who our candidate will be.
EXACTLY!!! They have been shutting Fred's name out - after South Carolina, the press was relentless in reporting that Rudy came in 4th - with very little mention of Fred's 3rd place.
I will not fall for their transparent tactics - hang it there Fred! You're not out of this yet!
The FReeper I was referring to as the “Ron Paul” supporter, is: GovernmentIsTheProblem - post #4
He/she has been making the rounds on most all of the Fred threads
I wish you had been around when people were falsely claiming that Mitt Romney was a member of the Log Cabin Republicans.
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