Assuming Romney wins Michigan (+17) but loses all three states you list (Ohio (-20), New Mexico(-5) and Iowa (-7)) and the rest of the map breaks out the same as 2004 that would result in 271 ECVs (286 +17 - 20 -5 -7) for Romney, which is still a win.
Wow.
We could win without Ohio.... hmmmm.
Methinks we might need that plan because frankly, Ohio was awful in 2006 and might not be on our side in 2008 either.