Posted on 01/20/2008 9:34:59 AM PST by barryg
Mitt Romney had it all — money, looks, organization, endorsements and a seasoned staff.
But he still couldn’t crack South Carolina. There was something about the former Massachusetts governor that turned off Palmetto State voters.
He couldn’t connect with them no matter how hard he tried.
“He came across as a luxury car salesman,” said Francis Marion University political scientist Neal Thigpen, a Republican.
Romney spent about $280,000 a week to make his name known across South Carolina.
That was $3 million last year, in South Carolina alone.
He still flopped.
Realizing he couldn’t win here, Romney fled South Carolina last week with no plans to return. He hopped a plane to Nevada to claim his caucus win there Saturday.
The way South Carolinians saw it, Romney was ceding the state to three rivals — U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee.
Romney made a mistake earlier in the month when he pulled all of his money out of South Carolina to go campaigning in Michigan, said Clemson University professor Dave Woodard.
“His timing was just terrible,” said Woodard, a Republican. “It couldn’t have been worse. What Romney was saying was, ‘I really don’t care about South Carolina.’
“He left us at the altar.”
Romney’s campaign never did catch fire here. After a brief period leading in S.C. polls last fall, he lost steam, slumping to third, fourth or fifth in the polls.
Why? Three reasons.
Romney is from Massachusetts, automatically making him suspect in South Carolina. Voters here don’t trust politicians from the home of Teddy Kennedy, Mike Dukakis and John Kerry.
Voters also questioned Romney’s conservative credentials. His flip-flopping on key social issues — abortion and gay rights —caused S.C. voters to wonder about his claims of being a conservative.
Among S.C. voters who told exit pollsters Saturday the main reason they voted for a candidate was because he “says what he believes,” Romney finished last among the five candidates who actively campaigned here.
Romney’s Mormon faith also hurt him among evangelical voters in the Republican primary. Many Southern Baptists, who comprise the largest denomination in the state, see Mormonism as a cult. Romney ran fourth among S.C. voters who identified themselves in exit polls as born-again or evangelical Christians.
However, Thigpen rejects the notion that Romney lost South Carolina because of his faith.
“It wasn’t his faith,” he said. “It was his phonyism.”
Romney’s decision to pack up to Nevada and its caucus were an attempt to build on his lone primary victory, in Michigan. Romney also won Wyoming’s little-watched caucus.
His departure from South Carolina served to lower expectations for him here, even though he started to advertise again in the primary’s days and made a get-out-the-vote effort.
The other high-profile Republican candidates decided to ignore Nevada in favor of South Carolina with its history of creating and demolishing Republican hopefuls.
For Romney, Nevada presented a particular opportunity. His faith was an asset in that state with its large Mormon population.
One in four Nevada caucus-goers was Mormon; 95 percent supported Romney, according to entrance polls there.
Romney aides have attributed their candidate’s Iowa caucus loss to suspicion about his faith among evangelicals, who rallied behind Huckabee, a Baptist preacher.
Thigpen said Romney made a wise decision to travel to Nevada.
“Why kick a dead horse?” he asked, referring to South Carolina. “Why waste your money on something that doesn’t look promising?”
But in essentially declaring that South Carolina didn’t count, Romney missed a chance to prove he can be a winning candidate nationwide.
South Carolina is “a test-tube state,” said Chip Felker, a Greenville-based Republican consultant. “If you win here, you have shown you can win elsewhere.”
Do you?
I am not encouraged with a state-by-state electoral analysis, no matter who the GOP nominee is this year. Ohio is probably gone blue, thanks to the incompetent and corrupt Bob Taft. Michigan might be a possible pickup, but last year they reelected bonehead Canadian socialist Jenny Granholm. Iowa and New Mexico were narrow wins for W. in 2004 and will probably flip back to Rat. Colorado is problematic as is Missouri. Given that voters generally favor the other party after an 8-year presidency, it looks like The Beast or Osama gets sworn in a year from now.
He’s a flawed candidate at best. He would have great difficulty winning the south, NY and CA. Electoral College wise, chances would be slim at best.
Well, Gerald Ford was born in Nebraska and he was a Republican. Oh, I guess "NE" meant New England.
Both Presidents Bush were born in New England.
The only Republican President born in New England who still lived there when he was President was Calvin Coolidge, born in Vermont, later Governor of Massachusetts. Chester Arthur was born in Vermont (probably--some claim he was born across the line in Canada), but lived in New York when he became President.
Both of those men became President because the President who was elected died in office. It almost happened to another New Englander--Hannibal Hamlin of Maine, who was Lincoln's VP in his first term. (Replacing him with Andrew Johnson was a big mistake--but Lincoln didn't know he would be assassinated, or that Atlanta would fall before the election.)
Actually I think there is something to that statement---and as to why so many pollsters are all wrong so often.
The US is changing right under the feet of the MSM, with all of their models and thoughts and theories.
I personally think South Carolina will become more and more marginalized as to 'importance' as time goes on. Problem is, it will take 4 Presidential elections (20 years) for the MSM to catch on.
South Carolina does not represent the broad electorate of today nearly as much as it might have previously.
Just call it a hunch.
The day of a bellweather State IMO is drawing to a close. Thank goodness.
Ann Coulter likes him.
His family likes him.
My mommy likes me
My dog likes me
My kids like me
However, that does not mean I should be elected President.
Good Answer!
What will be interesting to see is the raw vote totals from SC, Republican primary vs. Democrat Primary.
From the results yesterday and a larger vote total in the Dem primary, could SC be going blue?
Oh. Yes you’re right.
My apologies. Sorry barryg!
(embarrassed smile)
As big a winner as Dole! Only saving grace...lowest turn out election in the history of elections because of Clinton/ Obama ticket on the other side, so very very slim chance to pull it off.
“Romney’s winning big, and people like him.
Rush Limbaugh likes him.
Ann Coulter likes him.
His family likes him.
He’s a good candidate! And he wins.”
_________________
Nice to see someone on here with an ACTUAL “rational thought.” Go Mitt!
I watched Mitt today... He got the “it” factor... he has the quality and presence.
I wonder if he signed his NRA application with the same pen he used for his permanent assault weapons ban?
“How about Rick Santorum as McCain’s VP?”
Santorum hates John McCain . . no way they would team up.
The bad hair/good hair ticket?
I doubt Romney would be content to play second fiddle to someone else, and McCain needs to reassure conservatives (given his track record on a number of issues), and there would be better choices to do that than a recent convert to conservativism (if he is a convert).
McCain would NEVER pick Romney. Lieberman.....Feingold.....he’ll go to a friend from his past.
Exactly. Great example of our most Conservative candidate left (assuming Fred quits).
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