Posted on 01/18/2008 5:08:33 PM PST by Lorianne
Think the current housing downturn and the subprime mortgage mess is the worst of the housing market’s problems? Not so, according to a report published this month in the Journal of the American Planning Association.
About to wreak havoc on the housing market are the 78 million American baby boomers who will “retire, relocate, and eventually withdraw from the housing market,” according to report authors Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California, and SungHo Ryu, an associate planner with the Southern California Association of Governments.
Using demographic data to show that individuals in their mid-60s tend to sell more often than buy, the authors contend that when boomers — a “dominant force in the housing market” — start reaching the age of 65 in the year 2011, a market shift will occur. Some retirees will be looking to downsize, others will relocate to warmer climes, while others will move to nursing homes, says Mr. Myers. As they transition out of the housing market or look to sell their homes, in some states there will be “more homes available for sale than there are buyers for them.” Home prices will soften.
The “sell-off” will create a sizeable hurdle for the housing market, because as Mr. Myers puts it, “It isn’t money that buys property, it’s warm bodies. If you don’t have enough warm bodies to fill up the space, the space stays empty.”
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...
OMG, it’s our fault for getting older!!!!!
At 65? Only the long-time stoners will be that decrepit at 65.
that’s exactly why wall street and washington don’t want restrictions on immigration.
if you think people are angry now, wait until immigrants stop coming. the economy will be broke.
If boomers hadn't dropped their fertility rates so much, this would not be a problem. They are the Me-generation, and the generations that follow them will pay for it. The nation will recover from the boomers in about 50 years, if it last that long.
Dad was home on leave, eh?
“And you yourself are ... what?
The first and only free thinking individual in the history of earth?”
Duh. I think my point was obvious but I’ll explain it again.
It’s not the Boomers that are the real problem. The real problem started with their socialist parents. Many people seem to think of Brokaw’s “Greatest Generation” as somehow wonderful and virtuous but they were the original American socialists.
Great post. :-)
I have a dear niece and family who live in eastern TN. She's definitely not a hick. So you couldn't scare me off from moving there, if I really wanted to move there. Now, WV would give me pause.
We found a beautiful piece of property in a semi-rural area near but not on top of lots of great amentities and I'm not telling anyone where it is.
We own rentals in a college town and a duplex (both sides) in a town which is the youngest and fastest growing town in our state so I’m not worried about those properties. I do get a bit depressed though when I look around our neighborhood and see only two families with children at home. sigh.
megadittos
By that logic, mexico would have a stronger economy than us with all those street sweepers and maids.
nada.
the u.s. aborted 30,000,000+ children, necessitating replacement labor.
a booming economy requires an expanding labor force.
conversely, a contracting labor supply causes severe economic problems.
You are correct. Fortunately (or unfortunately as the case may be), the vast majority do not understand the sweetness of the M1911-A1.
Not that it changes the moral problems that exist as a result, but considering the socioeconomic status of most women who've had those abortions, I don't know that too many of those would have grown up to be homeowner material.
Well for you OK
They never-the-less would need some place to live. From what I've seen of abortion statistics, I suspect millions of the 50 million cumulative abortions would have been born to middle and upper middle class women.
An indirect observation is that when you take a drive through certain ethnic communities, you see lot's and lot's of children running about. Whereas in other communities, there is a noticeable lack of children seen running about.
Around here, I see a lot of "aging in place" - people paying contractors to "ageify" their homes (adding safety rails, ramps, putting laundry facilities on the first floor, etc.) Ranch houses are even coming back into style because they are one-story.
Also, 65 is pretty young for a lot of people to go into nursing homes. I think you're looking more at 80 and 85. With more people getting serious about their weight, health, lifestyle, etc., IMO the boomers are going to probably suffer less from aging than previous generations.
I can see a lot of ‘boomer’s taking the reverse mortgage road and leaving the house to Sally or Fanny May instead of junior.
“if you think people are angry now, wait until immigrants stop coming. the economy will be broke.”
I’ll be keeping a close eye on Arizona and their death penalty for businesses hiring illegals.
Too late! My mom and dad leave Maryland next week (God willing) and they're headed your way.
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