You are dead-on. But add these two caveats.
First, when you say correctly, that the various conservative constituencies apparently do not prefer a true 100% conservative, that is ONLY because they are voting their pet issues over the mantle of purity.
Second, we must say “apparently” because we have to consider the campaigns that Fred and Duncan ran. The campaigns have a say in success and failure. In other words, maybe if Fred had started sooner, got emboldened in debates sooner, etc.
all agreed.