[K-oneTexas]

Geopolitical Weekly : The Strait of Hormuz Incident and U.S. Strategy

[FastCoyote]

“That would indicate that speed, distance and bearing were not yet at a point that required a response”

anyone who has seen the video knows those boats were in the decision zone.

[tet68]

Hahahaha. They have elections in Iran?
Is THAT what they call them?

[RightWhale]

Today MSM reported that the photo was a spoof. We are somewhere between Gulf of Tonkin and total denial.

[Billthedrill]

An interesting analysis. Clearly the attempt by Iran to make headlines with these boats had a purpose beyond a phony mine attack. I might point out that a swarming attack in the Straits of Hormuz against an aircraft carrier only works if there is a carrier actually in the Straits. The further out in blue water that carrier battle group is, the less vulnerable to smallboys. That is, after all, the point of having a blue water Navy.

It will be most interesting to see if the mullahs decide to retain the services of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He made a very useful lightning rod, but it may be that a little less lightning is preferable at this point. Their window of opportunity is closing on Iraq and should they open it up again by force it's going to be pretty obvious to Iran's neighbors that she is precisely the same sort of danger that Saddam Hussein was. Aggressive is one thing; unpredictable and out of control quite another. It is to be remembered that even Syria was on the coalition's side when Saddam swamped Kuwait. So do they keep Ahmadinejad or shove him into a convenient shadow?

There is in addition the upcoming U.S. Presidential election and its inevitable effect on foreign policy. Should the mullahs truly wish to shift the direction of relations it may be a good time to do so under a new figurehead who will deal with a new U.S. President. That has the potential to save face without the actuality of a commitment to a concrete new policy. I wouldn't be altogether surprised to see it happen.