Posted on 01/14/2008 9:06:31 AM PST by UCAL
Andre Carson, the grandson of the late Rep. Julia Carson (D-Ind.), will face Republican state Rep. Jon Elrod in a March special election to fill the remainder of the term.
The six-term congresswoman died last December after a bout with lung cancer.
Andre Carson, a newly elected Indianapolis city councilor, won the Democratic nomination on the first ballot at a Saturday caucus among district-wide precinct committee chairmen. He easily outdistanced his leading rivals, state Reps. David Orentlicher, Carolene Mays and Marion County Treasurer Peter Rodman.
But he’ll face a serious fight for the seat against Elrod, who overwhelmingly won the GOP nomination on Sunday.
If Carson wins the special election on March 11, he would be only the second Muslim in Congress. The first, Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), was elected in 2006.
The district, centered in Indianapolis, traditionally favors Democrats. But the surrounding area has been trending more Republican lately.
Even though she represented the most Democratic district in the state, Julia Carson only narrowly won reelection against a little-known opponent in 2006 — in a year when three Republican congressmen lost in Indiana.
Indianapolis’ Democratic mayor, Bart Peterson, recently lost to a little-known Republican challenger, Greg Ballard, who was outspent 10 to 1.
Elrod scored a surprising upset of his own in 2006, winning a solidly Democratic state legislative seat against a veteran opponent.
A newly released Democratic-sponsored poll conducted for one of Carson’s rivals for the nomination suggests that Elrod has a fighting chance to win the special election.
Andre Carson only led Elrod 41 percent to 38 percent among district-wide voters, even though Carson sports significantly higher name recognition than his Republican rival.
“Potential candidate Andre Carson is the least popular figure we tested, and is even less popular than Gov. Mitch Daniels,” the poll memo said.
Conducted by Momentum Analysis, the poll surveyed 400 voters in the district Jan. 5-7.
In the IN-07, President Bush was held to 43% in 2000 and 42% in 2004, but I think Jon Elrod has a real chance at an upset victory in a low-turnout special election. Elrod knows how to win urban Democrat votes, and I don’t think that suburban Democrat voters will be coming out in droves to support a Black Muslim candidate, even if he’s the grandson of Julia Carson and has a D next to his name.
>> If Carson wins the special election on March 11, he would be only the second Muslim in Congress. <<
Kweisi Mfume being only rather Muslim.
And a lot of Andre X’s Dem opponents intend on challenging him again in the upcoming primary. They aren’t happy about his “win” in the least.
“And a lot of Andre X’s Dem opponents intend on challenging him again in the upcoming primary. They aren’t happy about his “win” in the least.”
I would think if Elrod takes him down in the March special, that will certainly embolden Democrats to dump Carson in the May primary. There are at least 2 Dems with more credentials and higher-office holding positions that would make for stronger candidates, State Reps Carolene Mays (self-identified as Black, but as “White” as NC’s G.K. Butterfield) and David Orentlicher. If Mays and Carson split the Black vote, Orentlicher, as the sole prominent White candidate, would be in the best position to capture the nomination.
I’m surprised that the Rodents chose Carson, given how many liabilities he has. If Elrod does win this race, it’ll be a reflection on how poor a candidate Carson is, not any reflection on the national trend. But a win is still a win.
Julia was even less qualified than Andre. The people that voted for her probably had no idea that she worked very little.
They will probably vote for him because they have no idea about what is expected.
Julia really knew very little about what was going on. Dems told her to vote a certain way, thats what she did when she wasn’t absent.
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