Your comparison to the pre WWI days is not realistic. The usage of hay was market driven, not mandate driven. When hay was eclipsed by tractors and oil, the land usage shifted. In addition, the country was much smaller then and farming methods were obviously much different. I do not place any value in such a comparison.
We have massive government interference in the energy business. This interference looks permanent. This massive interference makes me pessimistic about the future price and supply of energy. Any industry shielded from competition by permanent massive subsidies and mandates will be non competitive in the long run.
I disagree with your one line assessment of the biofuels debate. Here is my one line summary:
“Provide the alternative energy industry with permanent massive subsidies and mandates and it will produce a boondoggle.”
Argue that there is no dog, but I see the tracks in the snow as clear as day.
If they had any real belief in the nonsensial musing that they pass off as factual, much like cow flatulence from eating grass, they would play with their own money in the futures market, much like I do, with the reverse positions of mine.
The price increase in grains and all foods will be large and permanent.
There is not even one refinery built that can process cellulose into fiber, and that type of investment will be huge, take decades to construct, and demand large returns on investment.
Money chases return, period.
The guv’mint will ensure that money is taken from us to help fund that.
Food prices are rising, they going to continue rising, and that reality will not change.
You ethanol promoters here are sheep, and I am happy to take your money in the market.
I want another Ferrari. - One is no longer enough.
Government interference didn’t stop the previous market cycles. There has been government interference in ag since about 1930, and the commodity price cycles have come and gone with, if anything, higher peak:trough levels.
If the malthusians can point their quavering fingers to the past, what with their profound ignorance of the incredible increases in yields today, then I can point to hay as fuel. If we want to level the playing field, I’ll do that too.
This ag commodity cycle won’t be any different than those in the past. There’s going to be a collapse in ag commodity prices - probably (from looking at past charts, etc) out about five to eight years.
There’s been interference in the oil market for as long (or longer, actually) than they’ve been playing in the ag markets. If you want to see biofuels be given a lesson by the market, then get the government(s) out of the oil market. When the “real thing” comes back into compliance with supply/demand signals, the alternatives (ie, “make believe” fuels) will collapse as well.