Since the early days of the war, when there was actual combat between regular armies going on, a “bad” day will involve 30+ reported deaths, and a real bad day will report 60+ deaths. I also assume many deaths are not reported in the Western press. Based on this, I’d expect the deaths to average about 50-100 a day for five years, or about 90,000 - 180,000 total.
I think you’re on the money. I doubt that the level of infrastructure development and consumer growth that we’re seeing would occur in the kind of environment that these official reports suggest.