If you are a conservative and McCain, Rudy, or some other RINO that you can’t stomach is the nominee...
VOTE THIRD PARTY if you know beyond a reasonable doubt which way your state’s electoral votes will go and show your non-support by voting in the “Other” column
VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN, however, if you have a remote chance of being kingmaker. If any major recent polls in your state have the Republican within the margin of error, then vote for the Republican because you could be the kingmaker.
IF YOU GET POLLED prior to the election, however, you should take the Republican because polls are usually more valuable than votes since they are sampled and extrapolated to the national level. Also, they influence the votes of others.
If you live in Massachusetts, for instance, I can already tell you that your vote is worthless in the “R” column anyway.
If you live in Florida, however, there’s a high probability that you can’t risk a protest vote.
I like your idea of voting 3rd party if I know beyond a reasonable doubt my state will swing (R).....I just moved to Texas so I do not know about politics here....