If Romney loses Michigan and drops out, who gets his voters?
THat’s a good question. I have no idea how that works. But I’d guess nobody gets them. They get thrown out. THose votes are already cast.
Obviously it will be a split. I think Hunter, Thompson and Huckabee will all get hefty shares. McCain might get some, but probably less than you think. McCain would get a lot if Romney were his old self. The new Romney appeals to different voters. Now, if Thompson drops out McCain should get his votes. Only there is an odd phenomenon with that. Thompson voters hate McCain even though the two candidates are very similar. So I don't see McCain pulling in any votes from other Republican candidates. He might benefit from the dropout of some Dem candidates.
No one “loses” if you come in 2nd in a race of five candidates, where each one is winning a different state. If one guy is second in all the states, he’d easily win the majority of the delegates (which, BTW, Romney now has). We’ll see if he comes in second tonight and if he does, that’s a serious blow to Huck. But it won’t be spun that way.
I bet Huckabee eventually gets quite a few from the social conservatives supporting Romney.
There is still a small hope that Fred Thompson could pick up some of the sort and become viable again.
“If Romney loses Michigan and drops out, who gets his voters?”
Me, that’s who. I’m running hard and won’t give up until the White House silverware is all mine!
“If Romney loses Michigan and drops out, who gets his voters?”
Here’s what Rasmussen shows for South Carolina:
“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows both Huckabee at 28%, John McCain at 21% and Mitt Romney at 15%. In mid-December, Huckabee and Romney were tied for the lead with 23% of the vote while McCain was well off the pace at 12%. The current survey offers disappointing news for Fred Thompson who earns just 11% of the vote, down a point since December. As recently as November, Thompson was tied for the lead in South Carolina.”
If Huckabee wins in S.C., which I think he will, with McCain in 2nd place, then Romney will definitely lose in Michigan. Plus, if Thompson comes in 3rd or lower in S.C. he really should pull out of the race and will.
I think Thompson will endorse his longtime friend McCain, or not endorse anyone at all. Thompson voters will be really sullen and mad for awhile and then I think the social conservatives that are with him will mostly gravitate to Huckabee. The other types will go primarily to McCain with some to Guiliani.
Romney will be total toast after Michigan and should pull out, and probably will. He won’t endorse anyone...he hates them all and they equally despise him.
Now to the answer about Romney’s supporters. Those that are primarily religious/moral voters will go to Huckabee (except for the mormon & mormophile ones that would vote for anyone but Huckabee). The other types will go to McCain mainly. Some will actually go to Guiliani.
So, whether it be Fred or Mitt that drop out (and they both will), McCain will benefit from the fiscal types and Huckabee from the social types.
Huckabee will do better than McCain in Florida, but McCain will do better than Huckabee in Michigan. They will be pretty even by Super Tuesday with McCain seen as front runner.
On Super Tuesday, Guiliani will pull some NE states but McCain will take CA. Huckabee will do well in the Southern states. When the smoke clears, McCain will be ahead and win the GOP nomination, and he will pick Huckabee to be his VP to keep morals/values voters with the GOP.
Of course, it is always possible that Fred will come from behind in S.C. and give us a viable candidate to compete with Huckabee in the South, but don’t count on it. I think he is running out of air.
Another scenario that is possible would be for Huckabee to do better on Super Tuesday than I anticipate. If so, the Huckaboom could lead to him being the GOP nominee. However, I would say that he has earned a VP slot, and nothing higher at this time.
Romney is not dropping out, he is doing good in the delegate count so far. Romney should only stop when it is obvious that based on his delegates, it would be impossible to get the nomination. He can continue to come in second place alot and still continue to gather massive amounts of delegates. He only needs to win sometimes, and the others can continue to splinter their wins by trying to gang up on Mitt. But eventually, that will back-fire, as those who engage in those kinds of devious politics will eventually turn on each other. Lets see how long that snake McCain continues to claim that he and Huck like each other, that will last, yeah, right!