Posted on 01/08/2008 12:11:53 PM PST by jdm
Turnout for the first primary election of the season has gotten so large that some precincts have run out of Democratic ballots. That bodes ill for both Hillary Clinton, who may see a rerun of Iowa's caucuses in a large independent turnout. It could also spell trouble for a Republican:
New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that turnout is "absolutely huge, and towns are starting to get concerned that they don't have enough ballots."
Scanlan voted Tuesday morning, and said the line in his polling location in Concord, the state capital, was "out the door."
Turnout was particularly high in Portsmouth and Keene -- both of which are overwhelingly Democratic, as well as Republican-leaning Hudson -- And some towns were running out of Democratic ballots, with independents favoring that contest over the GOP race.
At this point is heavier than it was four years ago -- a positive sign for Obama and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., both of whom are depending on large numbers of independent voters to back them in their primary races.
It certainly spells trouble for Hillary. She polls better than Barack Obama among the party's base, but Obama shines among independents and younger voters, the latter of whom rarely turn out in large numbers. If the youth vote gets activated as it did in Iowa, it means a big day for Obama and a potentially embarrassing finish for the long-time Democratic frontrunner. It could even threaten her with another third-place finish, as Edwards also polls better among younger voters than Hillary.
Conventional wisdom has McCain benefitting from a big turnout -- but in this open primary, that depends on the behavior of independents. If most of them decide to cast their votes in the Democratic primary, McCain could find himself struggling. He appeals more to independent Granite State voters, who appreciate his maverick tendencies. If he can't get a big enough boost from independents, he may slip out of the lead while Romney collects the Republican votes. It could change the entire dynamic of McCain's rise over the last few weeks -- which may wind up benefiting Obama instead.
Huge win for McCain JMO. Sadly. The media will then start screaming for Romney to get out to continue their quest to select the Republican candidate.
I guess the dead are even getting up to vote
I guess the dead are even getting up to vote
Paging Mr. Daley, paging Mr. Rendell!!!!! Too many dead folks showing up.....
That would fit in with their false polls. Remember Iowa? Over and over, "it's just too close to call."
For Obama would signal trouble for the GOP come election day.
Against Hillary would likely be neutral to slightly favoring GOP come election day.
We don’t know yet. The recent polls have shown a double digit lead for Mitt among registered republican voters in NH. It depends how many independents vote for McCain to offset that.
I think more people watched the Democrat Debate because it is pretty much down to two major players.
Also, it was on a Saturday.
The Republican Debate was on a weeknight if I recall correctly. Things are pretty fluid in the Republican race - Huckabee, Thompson, Giuliani, McCain. Once things narrow down in the Republican Race, I expect more interest from the general public.
Besides, Hillary is almost a media star - in a negative way - the villaness.
The Repubs can win this if they don’t nominate McCain and if they all get behind whoever is nominated. Either that or we get another Clinton or a HUSSEIN in the White House.
Half of Boston was there, for sure.
Wouldn’t this be bad news for Ron Paul also? Conventional wisdom says that the independent vote was what kept him in the running in New Hampshire.
In Texas, iirc, if you vote Dim in the primary, you can’t vote Repub in the general. Don’t know if it’s like that in every state.
I think more people watched the Democrat Debate because it is pretty much down to two major players.
Also, it was on a Saturday.
The Republican Debate was on a weeknight if I recall correctly. Things are pretty fluid in the Republican race - Huckabee, Thompson, Giuliani, McCain. Once things narrow down in the Republican Race, I expect more interest from the general public.
Besides, Hillary is almost a media star - in a negative way - the villaness.
The Repubs can win this if they dont nominate McCain and if they all get behind whoever is nominated. Either that or we get another Clinton or a HUSSEIN in the White House.
Not sure. We’ll know in a little bit.
Well, it still doesn’t impact my other points.
I didn’t watch either.
I doubt very seriously that poll workers ask party affiliation for a general election.
Any registered voter can vote for any candidate on the ballot in a general election.
It is only in primaries that party ballots are issued.
The Secretary of State is a Democrat, and has every incentive to “hype” turnout.
Ah. (Do you know if the ScSt is a Hillorite or Obamaite?)
The Republican debate started at 7 pm and the Democrats started at 9 pm. Both debates were on ABC and moderated by Charles Gibson.
Jan. 5 Dem ABC 9,360,000
Jan. 5 GOP ABC 7,350,000
Intrade.com is now showing that the Democrats have a 62 percent chance of winning the Presidency in 2008.
One year ago, it was considered 50-50.
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