Obviously some states have a greater chance of supporting certain types of candidates, so they mean more for some candidates than they do for others.
Rudy doing badly in Iowa isn't a big deal for him. Fred's weak third place is more of a big deal to him than Rudy's considerably worse showing.
NH is relatively liberal, but often more small town liberal. McCain plays well there. If he did poorly there, it would be a very bad sign for him. Since Romney is well known there, he is expected to do well there.
However, a poor showing for Fred doesn't mean much.
You are however correct that doing well in early primaries can often translate into campaign donations, so they do have some importance in that regard, and they do skew the nomination process some because of that, but you still can't say that if someone comes in low in the pack on the first couple primaries that the race is over for them.
“You are however correct that doing well in early primaries can often translate into campaign donations, so they do have some importance in that regard, and they do skew the nomination process some because of that, but you still can’t say that if someone comes in low in the pack on the first couple primaries that the race is over for them.”
That was what I meant...and the momentum that a win can generate. You’re correct that a poor finish in NH doesn’t doom Fred, although it could doom Romney or McCain and it doesn’t have any effect on Rudy at all. However in states where the candidate should do well and instead narrowly hangs on, well that can be a killer. I wouldn’t think Freds 3rd place finish in Iowa was a bad showing except that he lived there for the 2 weeks leading up to the caucus. He toured the state, spent money on ads, and did lots of meet & greets, and still ended in a virtual tie with McCain, who didn’t campaign there at all. Rudy can tank in all the early contests, but if he tanks in FL. where he’s been spending time and money, well he’s in trouble. He can probably get a pass with a 2nd place finish, but a 3rd place finish will be hard to shake off.