Looks like we’re winding down this discussion.
But however much I’d enjoy complaining about how the system is set up, it is what it is. And our candidates must exist, run, campaign, and WIN within it.
***True enough. But this thing with evangelicals supporting Huckabee has the potential to disrupt all those great strategic plans. He has the capability to pull it off all the way through. When some republicans decided they should draft Fred, I get the impression it wasn’t because they were looking to appease the evangelical prolife faction within the party, and the stunt has backfired.
And I think it’s an order of magnitude or two more likely that Mr. Thompson will get the nomination than Mr. Hunter.
***Then you could make some money on Intrade if you honestly think that and it turns out to be correct. If it is an order of magnitude more likely, how is it that this guy from Arkansas is beating Fred in the polls? In order for Thompson to take down Huckabee he will need the evangelical prolife support. I’m talking SUPPORT, not just the vote. He doesn’t have it. If Hunter drops out, Thompson will most likely get my vote. But he doesn’t have my support.
But I won’t vote for Mr. Hunter, either. Probably write myself in. The field is brutally unattractive this year, sans Mr. Thompson.
***You’re the first Thompson supporter who I’ve run across who has said that he wouldn’t vote for Hunter. I guess you really do value centrism — like you said, perhaps different issues are important to us. Thanks for your honesty, it has led to a good discussion.
“***True enough. But this thing with evangelicals supporting Huckabee has the potential to disrupt all those great strategic plans. He has the capability to pull it off all the way through. When some republicans decided they should draft Fred, I get the impression it wasn’t because they were looking to appease the evangelical prolife faction within the party, and the stunt has backfired.”
As a Catholic who wanted Mr. Thompson to enter the race, I can’t tell you that attracting EVANGELICALS SPECIFICALLY was on my mind. However, I was concerned about attracting social conservatives, since I’m one. I think that minus a Baptist preacher thrown into the mix, I’m not sure that evangelicals would have separated as much from the rest of the social conservative mix.
“***Then you could make some money on Intrade if you honestly think that and it turns out to be correct.”
See, that gets back to the whole self-selection thing. The relatively tiny number of people who participate in Intrade are self-selecting, thus skewing the population in ways that we don’t really know. And I’m clearly not someone who would participate in something like Intrade.
Just not on my radar, so to speak.
“If it is an order of magnitude more likely, how is it that this guy from Arkansas is beating Fred in the polls?”
What’s one thing got to do with the other? Currently, Mr. Huckabee is besting Mr. Thompson. That doesn’t negate the fact that Mr. Thompson is swamping Mr. Hunter (or that Mr. Huckabee is swamping Mr. Hunter more than Mr. Thompson).
“***You’re the first Thompson supporter who I’ve run across who has said that he wouldn’t vote for Hunter. I guess you really do value centrism — like you said, perhaps different issues are important to us. Thanks for your honesty, it has led to a good discussion.”
You're reading things through your own lense, from your own perspective, making little effort to understand the other's perspective.
It’s not centrism that I value. It’s that I don’t think that he will be competent at being president. Having all the right views on all the issues (and I don’t actually think that about Mr. Hunter) doesn’t mean one has what it takes to get the job done.
Otherwise, it would be quite obvious that I would be the best person to be President of United States, in that my views are the most correct (at least in my view). ;-)
But an honest self-assessment reveals that I’d be a pretty crappy president, no matter how right are all my views on the issues.
When I look at Mr. Hunter, I see “manager” not “leader.” I see “Head of FEMA” or maybe “Secretary of Homeland Security.” If that high.
I don’t see president.
sitetest