The article is excessive, but the facts in it are facts. They are spun somewhat viciously, but they are facts.
The more compelling reality is the Thompson team said they were making a major effort in Iowa. He spent two weeks in that leased bus doing his tour of the state and was “statistically tied for third” which means “almost as low as fourth”. We all want to spin things favorably, but the truth is “campaigning the way he chose” means “no money”. Those two weeks in a bus did not get him even 20% of the GOP vote in a red state (yes, Iowa voted Bush in 2004 by 10,000 votes).
The delegate count is what gets the nomination. I have a serious curiosity about just what scenario is envisioned that generates a Thompson nomination from a brokered convention. Make no mistake about it, placing 2nd consistently — in places like California and Illinois will generate a lot of delegates. NY is WTA and who thinks Guilliani can’t win there? Is it seriously presumed that Thompson can place 2nd consistently in Illinois or all of New England or Oregon or Washington?
But regardless, what is the thinking? Let’s say Thompson refuses to bow out, despite no money for media buys, and arrives in Minneapolis with maybe 1/2 the delegate count Guilliani or Romney has. Is it thought that what is going to happen is the RNC will go to Guilliani and tell him to backstab all his donors by giving his delegates to a man with 1/2 his primary performance? Or is it thought that the RNC will go to Romney and say backstab yours, and also your own family’s inheritance from the loans you made the campaign, and give your delegates to a man with 1/2 your primary performance.
I know there is passion and enthusiasm, but what I truly don’t see is how the avalanche of delegates starts. Come Super Tuesday here are the southern states voting:
AL
MO
GA
TN
ARK
MO
That’s it. And I’m stretching things by claiming MO is a southern state — and MO is the only one of that batch that is WTA.
California and New York and Illinois are all on Super Tuesday. Who do you think is going to dominate the headlines Wednesday morning as the winner of the major delegate total? With those three states voting, how can it be Thompson with no money for LA, Chicago or NYC media buys?
So that’s my problem with the whole thing. I don’t see a strategy beyond hold on and hope for a miracle. What generally happens at a convention with no one having the necessary majority is the lesser candidates are offered a prime time speech and a plank in the platform and that’s that. Is this really what he and the people sending him money have in mind?
Just barely 50%-49%. Iowa generally is fairly liberal. Unless you consider Tom Harkin conservative.
Um, no...
If it does indeed go to convention, Thompson will not be among the "lesser" candidates, but part of the brokering.
The hacks for the various factions of the GOP are very busy right now.
Watch Wyoming today.
If Fred pulls it out there, think about conceptually adding the following Feb 5th states to Fred's potential win list:
Alaska
Colorado
Montana
North Dakota
Also, you forgot West Virginia, I think Fred has pull there too if the Huckaboom fades.