Posted on 01/04/2008 5:01:47 PM PST by Norman Bates
Bets in the political futures markets strongly suggest the momentum Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain gained in the Iowa caucuses will carry them both to strong victories in the upcoming New Hampshire primary.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen, who relied on the markets to predict accurately Iowa wins for Obama and Gov. Mike Huckabee, told WND McCain gained the most nationally after a virtual tie for third in the Hawkeye state. Anticipating a New Hampshire victory, the markets now project the Arizona senator as the favorite to win the GOP nomination.
The Rasmussen market predictions now give Obama a 65 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary in New Hampshire and McCain a 74 percent chance in the state's Republican contest.
Intrade.com, a predictions market run out of Ireland, shows almost exactly the same results, giving Obama a 67 percent chance of winning New Hampshire and McCain a 74.9 percent chance.
"Our prediction market for Iowa turned out to be very accurate," Rasmussen said.
(Excerpt) Read more at wnd.com ...
I am almost the opposite, but of course I am a Reaganite and don’t like ANY of them, and am certainly no left-wing Rockefeller Republican..They can go crying back to New York City when we have a liberal RudyMcRomneebee as our nominee, and the Democrat wins..!
[quote]McCain was supposed to be DEAD 4 months ago, he definately is the biggest winner out of Iowa, and most likely out of NH.
Folks here may not like him, but he’s definately got the momentum.
The more I watch the race, the more likely I think he’s going to wind up the nominee. Thompson’s going nowhere, Romney’s on the decline, Huckabee won’t be remembered in a few weeks, Guliani passing the early states keeps him out of the spotlight and drops his numbers.... McCain’s the dark horse to keep an eye on.[/quote]
I completely and totally agree with this. I’m definitely a McCain supporter(I never ever ever thought I’d say that).
Sure, he’s done some things that aren’t very Republican, but come on. He is the one who can defeat the Democrats, and the more time that goes on, I think he’s the ONLY one who can. Stay home if you want, but don’t come crying to me on election night.
I’ve lost friends in this war. In fact, I’ve lost friends or family members in every war of my lifetime including the cold war. I’ve served under three Presidents, Republican and Democrat, so you can take your accusatory hyperventilating cr@p elsewhere. It doesn’t impress me.
If the Republicans want my vote, they need to nominate a conservative. Period. Enough of the identity politics, enough of voting because he’s handsome or personable, enough of redefining conservatism down, enough of voting for a President based on issues which the President can’t control. Enough.
You think Huckleberry Hound has the gray matter, much less the ‘nads, to keep this country safe? An R behind the name doesn’t necessarily mean a thing. You know who started the big drawdown of the military that still haunts us today? Bush I, so concerned with buying votes with the nonexistent “peace dividend” that the gutting of the military was well underway by the time Clinton got into office.
Conservatism will keep this country safe. Liberalism, from either party, will destroy it.
Wow! my daughter was not even that bratty when she was six. Of course we would like a true conservative to represent us. However, here is a little insight, the majority of people who would nominate a "RINO" are not FR types and are not listening to you. It is up to the "true conservative" candidates to market their conservatism to all Republican voters. Thus far, they seem to be failing. If your verbal tantrums make you feel better, good. But All of us will be forced to choose from the candidates in November. It is delusional to believe that, with the Dems holding both houses in a time of war, and with an aging court. There would be no difference between a "RINO" and a traitorous socialist.
I’m with you. It looks like the Republican establishment wants McCain, though, so don’t expect our preferences to count.
If people are willing to overlook things for other candidates, why won't they do the same for John McCain? I really think he could be the "consensus" candidate we all claim to be looking for. And if you really look into it, his record is not that different than Fred Thompson. I realize that many here (myself included) feel that he stabbed them in the back with McCain Feingold, and with "amnesty" (which he now says he has listened to the people and agrees that security at the border must be the first priority), but Fred endorsed BOTH positions. Although Fred was not in the senate during the voting, he did say on Fox the night of the vote that he agreed, and "aspiration of citizenship" should be part of any bill. Fred also wrote a brief to SCOTUS defending McCain Feingold. If he can change his views, and they are overlooked here, why can't we do the same with McCain?
McCain has proved via head to head hypothetical match ups that he is the strongest against the Dems in the general election. WE MUST THINK OF THAT.
As of today, McCain is my second choice, but I would support him strongly if he becomes the "consensus candidate" and our nominee!
I too served 23 years in the military. I am a veteran of the Gulf War and OIF/OEF. I didn’t accuse you of anything I simply stated that if a Democrat wins because you fail to vote for the Republican and that Democrat undoes all the things that Bush has done to keep us safe including being on the offense against Al-Qaida (Read that as Iraq), Then when we get attacked again and if you lose a close friend of relative in that attack how can you reconcile it.
Unless of course you truly believe in your soul that there is no difference between having a Republican president vs. having a Democrat President when it comes to fighting this war. The entire Democrat campaign has been anti_Bush not just anti-Republican.
The danger to this republic is liberalism, and whether it has an R or a D behind its name makes no difference. There are nominal Republicans in this race who will be no better at fighting alQaeda than Democrats, and I won’t vote for them. Period.
Your scenario is wrong.. its not going to be as easy as a nuke snuck in from Iran ... It is going to be nuanced and wishy-washy... by a known or unknown terror group and by the time our Intel agencies figure out who’s to blame there will be enough doubt that a Democrat in charge will not take any action against the country that is implicated on the other hand. The Republicans under Bush have remained lock step solid in the existential threat that Radical Islam poses to American FREEDOM. That is the huge diffence between the parties... In the above scenario a Republican President can and will act in defense of this nation to obliterate its enemies while the Dem squirms and seeks guidance from the UN... There is no candidate on the Democrat ticket that but security of America first and I believe every Republican Candidate has... My point is not to endorse Mcain or Huckabee my point is to say that no matter who the Republican nominee is we must come together for the sake of our Democracy and support them because any of the Republicans trumps all of the Dems on matters of National Security.
That is simply not true see the above...
Win the war.
Imagine 70% of the World's know oil reserves under the military control of Islamist fanatics actively pursuing nuclear weapons and delivery systems because we have a Commander-in-Chief who is clueless about the strategic stakes and wants to declare defeat.
Vote appropriately...
Not Huckabee.
Not Obama.
Not Edwards.
Not Paul.
Ironically, I would trust Hillary more than Huckabee to prevent a nightmare scenario in the Persian Gulf.
Amen Brother that is exactly the point... You must be rational and non-emotional in this political climate or you’ll go nuts... or worse you’ll stay at home on election day cause you don’t like your parties candidate... sheesh hows that for an idiotic choice.
“There is no candidate on the Democrat ticket that but security of America first and I believe every Republican Candidate has...”
You believe, you don’t know. Have you read Huckabee’s foreign policy screed that has all the insight of a not-particularly-bright 10th grader? Mr. “close Gitmo,” “waterboarding is torture,” “Bush has a bunker mentality,” “things went downhill with Iran when Bush called them part of the axis of evil,” “Bush had the NIE for four years and never read it,” “I understand Islamic extremists because I have a theology degree” wouldn’t know an alQaeda terrorist if he had a bomb belt in one hand, a suitcase nuke in the other and was screaming “allah akbar” at the top of his lungs. Huckabee will not keep this country safe, and if somebody’s going to go up in a mushroom cloud because Huckabee’s busy turning the other cheek, it won’t be because of my vote.
I highly doubt that Huckabee will be the nominee. Most likely he has triumphed as far as RNC Chair. However, a Mcain/Guiliani ticket is not out of the question at this point or a Romney/Mcain or a Romney/Thompson.. My tea leaves are a bit cloudy at the moment but back to the point.. Common sense must dictate to every American.. The number one job of the CINC is to keep us safe. No Democrat is serious about facing the threat of Islamic Terror... Republicans are on the right side of this issue but have been crucified by the Milquetoast liberals... This ceases to be the land of the Free, if we are afraid to go to the mall because Islamo Nazis are blowing themselves and us up in them or if we can’t send our kids to school because Al-Qaida cells were activated and they blew our kids up or cut their heads off and threw them out school windows for their media accomplices to report on the 6 O’clock news, or we can’t go to a baseball or football game because large crowds in stadiums have become the target of Islamo nuts intent on our destruction... For all the things that the Republicans haven’t done... collectively the one thing that they have managed to do is to keep this country safe post 911... Can the Democrats claim the same? So please don’t just throw in the towel because the Primary voters many centrists and some more left of center think that John Mcain can unite the country in a common goal...By all means do whatever you can to vote for the candidate that best represents you but remember after the chips fall that we must coaless around our nominee. Third party is a wasted vote. The Liberals are intent on taking back the WH.... I think collectively we must do everything in our power to stop that from happening at this point in our history.
So, if John McCain wins the nominatioon I’m supposed to vote for him because he knows how to keep me safe? Are you joking? Mr. Open Borders doesn’t have a clue about the nature of the threat; he’s much more concerned about the nature of his donor base. For that matter, not even the occupant in the White House has done nearly enough to keep us safe. We’ve been frisking grandma at the airport and fighting terrorists over there, while our southern flank is wide open over here. No nation with an almost 2000-mile-long, virtually unprotected border can win an insurgent war in the end. The Republicans have not been truly security conscious in this war, they’ve been lucky. So far.
Eight years passed between the first and second attacks on the World Trade Center. Our enemies are patient, but they’ll be back, and it will take a conservative President, not merely a Republican one, to beat them.
Your cynasim is overwhelming and there is no arguing with your flawed logic... So stay home on election day if the GOP decides to run a candidate that is not conservative enough for you.. Fine you win... and let something horrible go down because a Democrat nitwit like Obama gets to be President and I’ll be back on this board specifically blaming YOU...and calling you a Liberal enabler.
If my logic is flawed, as you put it, then argue with it. And if your first reaction to a terrorist attack will be to blame me because I wasn’t willing to vote for any liberal nitwit the Republicans chose to put up, then I feel sorry for you.
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