You are right on Romney. Everyone else has an “out” when it comes to Iowa. McCain, Thompson and certainly Giuliani did not spend the time and money that Romney did there.
I certainly don’t think this makes Hucakbee the favorite. But I don’t see Romney finishing higher than second in NH, SC, and FL. He has to hope that the first place guys are different in each of those states. I suppose that is possible with McCain winning NH, Thompson (hopefully) in SC, and Giuliani (hopefully not) in Florida.
Considering that McCain spent virtually no time in Iowa, he’s certainly polling better than expected.