Posted on 01/03/2008 8:08:26 AM PST by Spiff
Thursday, January 03, 2008The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows little change among Democrats and a continued muddle among Republicans.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Hillary Clinton 41%, Barack Obama 24% and John Edwards 17%. No other candidate tops 2% nationally.
In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, five candidates are within five points of the lead. On the morning of the Iowa caucuses, the Republicans now have their fifth “leader” of the season as Mitt Romney winds up on top for the first time ever. But, his advantage is a statistically insignificant one point and reflects the continuing lack of a GOP frontrunner. It’s Romney 18%, John McCain 17%, and Mike Huckabee at 16%. Five points off the pace are Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson at 13%. Ron Paul retains his base support at 7%.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. New results will be posted Friday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.
All of these numbers, in both parties, could shift dramatically depending upon the results of the Iowa caucuses. Rasmussen Reports analysis is available for both the Democratic and Republican caucuses. Robert Novak suggests that the Democratic race is close because Clinton made a strategic error he describes as “premature triangulation.” Michelle Malkin describes the Iowa caucuses as “flawed but useful.” Larry Sabato notes that all eyes are on the Hawkeye state, but wonders whether they should be. A commentary by Scott Rasmussen suggests that the nation needs a confirming election with a Big Victory to improve the health of our political system. Other analysis can be found in the Rasmussen Reports Political Commentary section.
Whatever happens, the first opportunity to measure the impact of the fallout from Iowa will be in the Rasmussen Markets data shortly after the results from Iowa come in. Since the Markets offer real-time data provided by traders in a prediction market the hours following the Iowa results will highlight new perceptions of what to expect in New Hampshire and in the race for the nomination. If you would like to participate in the Rasmussen Markets, it costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
The markets currently suggest that Obama and Huckabee are favored to win in Iowa. You can check out the candidates’ directly by viewing their latest videos.
In terms of winning the nomination, Data from RasmussenMarkets.com suggest that McCain has a 27.7 % chance of winning the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney 23.7 %, Giuliani 23.0 %, Mike Huckabee 3.1 %, and Fred Thompson 3.1 %. Among Democrats, Clinton has a 61.7 % chance to win the nomination while Obama has a 30.5 % chance.
A separate tracking survey found that the Republican Party ended the year on an upswing—the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans is at the highest level in nearly two years. Still, while the GOP bounced back, the President’s Job Approval did not.
As the nation enters the election year, John McCain is the only Presidential candidate viewed favorably by most voters. But, Hillary Clinton is seen as the candidate most likely to end the year as President-elect.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
He “lakes” lead?
what Lake does he lead in?
• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •
What a mess. We are headed to a brokered convention that will have an impossible task to settle this.
Lakes came out of nowhere.
Where is Romney Lakes and how warm is the water this time of year?
Sounds like his campaign “sleeps with the fishes”... LOL...only kiddin
Romney 18
McCain 17
Huck 16
Fred 13
Rudy 13
I think you misspelled “fakes”.
Any chance of getting a fix on the "Lakes" in the title? Thanks.
Ironically Romney now trails in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Great Salt Lake.
Hey, dummy! You just misspelled "thread" and posted "threat" in your last post even after your thread title debacle. Wake up and learn to type!
“what Lake does he lead in?”
Salt Lake.
/rimshot/
Remember back when people said “but where is Romney nationally?”
Don't they have a pill for that yet?
thought that lake was fished out
Look, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government!
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