By definition the “base” is locked in. It doesn’t matter whether they are motivated to vote for a candidate or against the opposition. I could run a dancing bear dressed in a lime green leisure suit and get a respectable turn out from the base.
No, you couldn't. You wouldn't even get a good turnout from the base for Romney. Not in this election cycle.
After 8 years of Bush demoralizing conservatism, don't expect conservatives to crawl across broken glass to go to the polls to vote for a liberal East Coast elitist who bears a striking resemblance to the last 5 Democrat candidates for President on almost every issue that matters to them. And try to convince them that Supreme Court nominations matter so much that they should vote for President based upon it. It won't happen. Then blame them when you ignored their position at every turn leading to the election.
Superb strategy. Really top drawer.