“Actually if Huckabee can hold on to win it helps Thompson more than anyone if Fred can get around 20%.”
I fail to follow the logic here at all.
The first problem with your scenario is that Thompson hasn’t polled 20% in an Iowa poll ever. His high watermark was 19%, which came before Huckabee’s surge and Thompson’s steady decline from that point. If Huckabee does hold onto win, then it’s hard to see where Fred gets anywhere close to 20% from. 10% is more likely.
The second problem is with the notion of a Huckabee win helping Thompson after Iowa. Thompson’s campaign was always built on the idea of launching from South Carolina. Most recent polls show Thomspon in 4th place in SC 10 - 18% behind Huckabee. How is placing third in Iowa behind Huckabee going to give Thompson momentum to overcome that? Especially considering that in the interim Thompson will be doing well to beat Ron Paul for 5th in New Hampshire and Michigan.
IMO the only scenario that gives Thompson a chance (and it would still be a longshot) at this stage is a big-style Huckabee collapse in Iowa. Maybe he would pick up some of the debris, and then it puts a lot of votes in South Carolina back in the air.
I think it’s a lot more likely though that Thompson will pull out of the contest on Friday after a 4th place in Iowa.
You are thinking statically. The polls don’t mean squat. We found that out in 2004. What happened was the Dean/Gephardt catfight benefited Kerry/Edwards at the very last minute, and the polls seriously lagged that shift.
We have the same thing going on now between Romney/Huckabee. If the race goes from Huckabee/Romney at 32/26 in the last DM Register poll, respectively, to say 26/24 on caucus nite, that shift could easily put Thompson in the 20% range if he’s the benefactor of that meltdown. I’m not even worried about him reaching 20% if the spread is less than 10 points. I don’t care if he’s in fourth place at that point. What I care is if he’s in the pack.
Why would Fred benefit the most? A Huckabee win in IA damages Romney. Then we go to NH. It looks like a McCain will win there. That damages Romney more. Romney will likely win in Michigan. That would fend off McCain a bit unless McCain is a close second. But how much momentum will that give him back to what he’s lost?
Where’s Huck in all this? He’s got a two front war with Romney and McCain if McCain wins NH and Romney MI. Huckabee’s got to be in the hunt to keep his rivals from coming into SC with too much momentum and him having none at all. The reason for that is with a first in the first contest is that it increases expectations. If he doesn’t do well in the next two contests, he looks like a flash in a pan and could literally be whipsawed out of the race. It’s not the first time that’s happened. And he has a poor ground game, he’s going to need money to get one, and he’s got to keep winning.
Then we go to SC. If Fred’s in the pack in Iowa, he’ll get a bump, some money and media. He should run straight to SC/FL and concentrate there. Why not NH and MI? It’s to Thompson’s benefit to let those three duke it out for awhile and knock each other off while he concentrates on SC/FL.
Why? If Huckabee flops, Thompson will benefit. If Romney flops Thompson will benefit. If McCain comes out on top going into SC Thompson will really be sitting good. I don’t see Romney people going to Huckabee, or Huckabee people going to Romney, and I see either going to McCain. In either scenario I see the remaining voters breaking more to Thompson than anyone else.
That’s why I see a Huckabee win in Iowa helpful to Fred. It potentially starts a chain reaction that in the end could benefit Fred the most. Meanwhile it keeps him in the race, will give him some money and media, and buys him some time. Time to let his opponents damage each other while he builds his campaign and maneuvers into a position him to take advantage of damaged opponents coming into SC, which as you said is where he wanted to make his stand anyway.