The only reason Obama has such a good shot at Iowa and N.H. is what is generously and condescendingly (at the same time) called “white guilt.”
Take that away and they’ll vote for Hillary in a heartbeat; gotta keep that money coming in.
Say what you want about Obama, but if there's one thing I admit that I admire a little bit about his campaign are his supporters. I live in NV which has an early primary. We're a red-going-blue state and noted for an independent streak, but I'm sure you know that. I keep getting calls from the Obama and Ron Paul campaign -- pre-recorded messages, push polls, automated polls, the whole works. Morning, noon, and night. If it were up to Nevada, you'd think that the process had already eliminated the other candidates and the general election race was between Ron Paul and Barack Obama. I don't see any other candidates' political signs anywhere, and sure as hell no Hillary Clinton signs or posters. They wouldn't last a minute up here and would probably be torn down by a Democrat first.
Anyway, the Obama 2008 people who keep calling are pretty interesting. I spoke with two at length and both were in fear of Hillary getting the nomination. Both of them agreed that she'd flat get her ass kicked in the general election and that's why we all need to come together to put our support behind Barack Obama. Like I said, I admire them because at least they know that much.
Really, the only political stickers I've seen up here are for Ron Paul and Obama. Those, and a smattering of Romney stickers right under the BYU collegiate sticker in the back window of SUVs. The old Bush/Cheney 2004 stickers are still commonly seen everywhere, of course.
I'm getting a clear sense that Northern Nevada is solidly within the mindset of 'Anyone but the Washington DC insiders' for this election.