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I like your irrepressible spirit.

I think it’s possible Hunter may beat Thompson in Iowa. I guess we’ll see in a couple of days.

Over at Intrade, the Nomination contracts show McCain surging, overtaking Romney. Thompson has dropped down to 2%, Hunter is still at 0.1, and the volume has dropped to zero.

2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 27.6
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 22.8
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 24.5
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 9.5
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 7.3
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 2.0
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1

However, in the President.Field contract, where Hunter is embedded (and Ron Paul is NOT), the contract has been gaining volume and is up 100%, within 0.6 of Thompson.

2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.3 0.4 0.3 15299 +0.0

2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.9 1.0 0.9 34721 -0.1

Rasmussen has started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts

They seem to openly admit that the data for Iowa between Christmas and New Year’s is unreliable: “Rasmussen Reports has not conducted polling in Iowa between Christmas and New Years. We have doubts about the ability to obtain reliable results during that time frame.”

Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.

Thompson tops the list of most likely to drop out in January, per Intrade. Judging from momentum, Thompson is the one who won’t be on the ballot in February.

DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 35.0 98.9 40.0 70 0

The chances of a brokered GOP convention are 15%
REP.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Republican Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M 15.0 20.0 15.0 60 0

Here’s a snapshot of the Iowa Caucus. Huckabee has regained the lead. Thompson has rebounded from yesterday’s fall all the way down to 0.1. Unfortunately, Hunter and Ron Paul are still embedded in the Field, so if you wanted to put your money down on Hunter it would cost $4, whereas it would only cost 80cents for Thompson today. It does show that the Field is coming in 3rd place for Iowa. That’s where I’m hoping that Hunter will actually beat Thompson, as unlikely as that is. But Iowans have surprised us in the past, and that’s usually because they tend to weed out the ones who are not authentic and prop up the ones who are. Hunter is the real deal, so he still has a chance over the next couple of days.

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 65.0
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 37.0
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 2.9
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 0.8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 0.1
REP.IOWA.FIELD 4.0

According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd